2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Two more 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from teams that we track here at Artemis have now been published and both echo other forecast teams we’ve already covered, in calling for this year to see hurricane activity above both the long and near-term averages.

The latest forecast update for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) raises the teams prediction for number of named storms and hurricanes slightly, suggesting activity levels that could be up to 30% above the long-term average.

NOAA has updated the concept of an ‘average’ Atlantic hurricane season, shifting the 30-year period forwards by a decade, which now means the benchmark average year contains two more named tropical storms and one more hurricane than before.

Tropical storm and hurricane research meteorologists at Colorado State University have issued a forecast calling for 8 hurricanes, 4 of them major, during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, while also forecasting an above-average chance of major hurricane landfalls occurring.

Another forecaster we track has issued an early forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, with WeatherBELL Analytics saying it anticipates another “very active season”, but with impacts potentially being seen further to the east and a warning about storms developing and intensifying closer into the US mainland.

The Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be another busy one in 2021, with more than 16 named tropical storms expected, at least 7 of which are forecast to become hurricanes and at least 3 major hurricanes, according to forecaster Accuweather.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season could be moved earlier by up to two weeks, if officials from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decide that the recent historical climatology warrants an extension to the season.

The climate conditions seen in the North Atlantic ocean at the moment are conducive to the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes, so suggest a chance of elevated hurricane activity in 2021 and beyond, according to global reinsurance firm Swiss Re, something the main forecasters are also pointing towards.