So far, major hurricane Ian’s approach to the west coast of Florida and the Tampa Bay region has not stimulated a significant amount of catastrophe bond trading, with the secondary market relatively quiet. Except for one telling trade that shows investor nerves over potential storm surge impacts are rising.

Twelve Capital, the insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance linked fund manager, agrees with other opinions that recent super typhoon Noru may cause a default of the Philippine government’s World Bank facilitated IBRD CAR 123-124 catastrophe bond.

The challenges that have been and continue to be faced by Florida’s property insurance marketplace effectively raise the risk of more financial impacts for Florida’s taxpayers, should a major loss event occur from hurricane Ian, it seems.

This morning, hurricane Ian has reached major Category 3 status and has strengthened further to 125 mph sustained winds, but more concerning for insurance, reinsurance and ILS market interests is the fact the forecast cone and track has shifted further east again, showing a landfall or very near pass to the Tampa Bay area.

Driving home the continued uncertainty over the eventual insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market impact from hurricane Ian, investment manager Twelve Capital said that modelled loss scenarios range from substantial to nothing for its ILS portfolios.

The insurance-linked securities (ILS) marketplace is looking particularly attractive at this time, with returns rising on the back of hardening reinsurance rates and greatly improved contract terms having been enforced through recent rounds of renewals.

Stere, an insurance technology (insurtech) start-up that has created a capacity platform to help connect embedded insurance partners and MGA’s to reinsurance capital, has announced a $5 million Seed+ capital raise from investment manager Vida Capital.

Typhoon Nanmadol’s impact in Japan is likely to be a manageable loss for the Japanese insurance industry, thanks to their robust capital, strong reinsurance programs and the fact loss creep is not expected to be an issue like previous storms that hit the country.

Hurricane Ian is expected to form within the next few hours, as tropical storm Ian has now begun to intensify and gain additional structure, while at the same time the forecast model consensus has shifted back east towards the Florida Peninsula’s west coast, raising the prospects of larger insurance and reinsurance market losses.

Speaking Friday afternoon during a panel discussion convened by Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions division, senior executives from some of the world’s largest reinsurers said that while they don’t anticipate a significant influx of new capital, they do expect insurance risks will continue to attract investors.

The Philippines World Bank facilitated catastrophe bond is deemed “likely to default” after the landfall and impacts of super typhoon Noru, according to investment fund manager Plenum Investments.

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