Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index

Latest commentary from Guy Carpenter

Post-mid-year 2026 renewals update:

After including market data from the April and mid-year June / July 2026 reinsurance renewals, the Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index is now down 16% for 2026 to-date.

Guy Carpenter said that a combination of benign losses, coupled with abundant reinsurer capacity and growing risk appetite, has continued to drive a competitive pricing environment.

“In some cases, risk-adjusted decreases have deepened since January 1, 2026 renewals, and property catastrophe rate on line (ROL) remains down globally, around 16%,” the reinsurance broker explained after analysing mid-year 2026 renewal rate-on-line information.

The Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index has now fallen by 23% from the level it had reached at its most recent hard market peak in 2024.

Incorporating June 1 and July 1 2026 renewals data, the global property cat reinsurance RoL Index still sits almost 32% higher than where it fell to during the last soft market low in 2017.

Notably though, the 16% decline in this Index over the course of 2026 reinsurance renewals is the biggest annual decline since the late 1990’s and a steeper decline than any year in the 2010’s soft market.

January 1 2026 Reinsurance Renewals Commentary:

The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index fell by 12% at January 1st 2026, reflecting rate-on-line decreases across global property catastrophe reinsurance contracts underwritten by reinsurers at the renewals.

The softening trend accelerated over the prior year, when this Index fell by 6.6% at January 1st 2025 and by 8.1% after the mid-year 2025 reinsurance renewals.

Property catastrophe reinsurance rates-on-line still remain attractive relative to years during the last soft market, with the Index level still above all years from 2014 through 2022 inclusive.

High levels of capital and capacity in the global reinsurance market continue to drive the softening trend, as losses have again been lower for the reinsurers due to the still higher levels that property catastrophe reinsurance contracts attach at.

Guy Carpenter stated after the 1/1 2026 renewals, “Excess capital positions, profitable underwriting results, and property reinsurance rates all drove reinsurers’ appetite for growth.”

Dean Klisura, President and CEO, Guy Carpenter, commented, “Despite global trade tensions and increased regulatory scrutiny, reinsurers have grown capital due largely to strong retained earnings. This has allowed clients to benefit from lower prices and a wider range of innovative solutions to meet their rapidly evolving needs.”

While the Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index now sits some 19% lower than the level it reached at its most recent hard market peak in 2024, it remains more than 38% higher than its last soft market low in 2017.

* Preliminary numbers.

• View the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.
• View the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.

The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base.  The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions.  Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.