Atlantic Hurricane Season

As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the government of Cayman is considering expanding its hurricane protection by turning to the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market to potentially issue its own catastrophe bond, while simultaneously expanding its parametric insurance coverage too, Cayman Compass reports.

While the broader catastrophe bond market often adopts a wait-and-see posture until the Atlantic hurricane season passes, the current 2026 landscape suggests that the most compelling value may be found during this window of peak uncertainty, according to Ethan Powell, Principal & Chief Investment Officer of Brookmont Capital Management, LLC.

While early forecasts for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season appear mixed, Dr. Benjamin Hohermuth of Schroders Capital ILS suggests that for insurance-linked securities (ILS) portfolios, the regional message is far more important than basin-wide totals. This regional focus creates vital scope for portfolio repositioning ahead of the season and for tactical trading as conditions evolve.

Twelve Securis, the specialist catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) investment manager, has explained that it is “cautious, but optimistic about El Niño’s positive influence on risk” for the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

According to a recent paper by Karen Clark & Company (KCC), the catastrophe risk modeller, a 100-year return period hurricane has the potential to generate more than $100 billion in insured losses in New York.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now issued its April forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing its extended range numbers from December and citing an expectation of moderate to strong El Nino conditions.

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has issued its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for “somewhat below-normal” levels of activity, citing the potential for a robust El Niño and associated increases in vertical wind shear as key factors.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be shaped by shifting climate patterns in the Pacific, as a developing El Niño may influence and perhaps depress tropical storm formation, but a forecast from Accuweather highlights the potential for rapid intensification and warns of three to five direct storm impacts on the United States.

Before the Atlantic hurricane season begins each year, forecasters release activity predictions that can have some influence on reinsurance pricing. However, a recent commentary from global alternative and active investment manager Man Group challenges the accuracy of these forecasts, questioning both their reliability and the benchmarks used to measure success.

According to a recent report from Willis, a division of WTW, natural catastrophe events generated over $100 billion in insured losses in 2025. This marks the sixth consecutive year that losses have exceeded this amount, highlighting the ongoing severity and persistence of natural catastrophe risk, despite the fact that no single hurricane made landfall in […]