Atlantic Hurricane Season

CCRIF SPC, the regional parametric risk pool for the Caribbean and Central America has announced that it has expanded its coverage to US $1.8 billion for the current policy year, a 14.5% increase from the $1.57 billion the organisation reported in early June, showcasing that demand for parametric coverage significantly outpaced expectations.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at an update today, citing “conditions in the sub-tropical Atlantic looking less favourable than as appeared to be a month ago.”

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has stuck with its forecast of well-below normal activity levels for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, while its landfall probability metrics have declined somewhat as the season progresses.

Whilst it appears that a super El Niño could be on the horizon, a new commentary from VP Bank AG authored by Senior Investment Strategist Bernhard Allgäuer indicates that insurance-linked securities (ILS) can provide portfolio diversification as their returns are driven by natural disasters, rather than financial market turmoil, making them largely uncorrelated with traditional […]

In a new report, SCOR Investment Partners has said that while outlooks for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season appear to be more positive compared to recent years, largely due to the emergence of strong El Niño conditions over the summer, portfolio construction remains focused on diversification and resilience, with a key objective of maintaining a high […]

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has now further reduced its seasonal forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the high-likelihood of a strong El Niño and the associated increase in vertical wind shear as the primary factor.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season slightly, now calling for one more hurricane and major hurricane to form, citing “indications that the sub-tropical Atlantic may provide more favourable conditions for tropical cyclones.”

According to a recent paper by catastrophe risk modeler Karen Clark & Company (KCC), while a long-term correlation exists between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and insured property losses, the climate pattern holds relatively little predictive power for any single year.

With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season now underway, the key meteorological factors influencing tropical cyclones have pointed towards a below-average season in terms of storm numbers, which affects the tactical positioning of an insurance-linked securities (ILS) or catastrophe bond portfolio, a new report from Solidum Partners AG has highlighted.

Tropical storm Arthur has become the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season today, forming near the middle Texas coast and expected to be relatively short-lived, with heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding seen as the main threats.