Atlantic Hurricane Season

It’s that time of year when we anticipate a range of seasonal hurricane forecasts to be published over the coming weeks, but long-range forecasts are already calling for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to be extremely active, with one forecaster calling for a “hurricane season from hell” in 2024.

Building codes in Florida are seen as a significant factor in reducing the potential insurance industry loss from hurricanes, with improvements in recent years seeing modelled loss estimates drop, reinsurance broker Lockton Re said this morning.

The first of the long-range forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has now been published and while these extended range outlooks should be treated as very broad guidance for what to expect, the team at Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) anticipate activity 30% above the near and 50% above the long-term norms.

Another estimate for the eventual insurance and perhaps reinsurance market loss from hurricane Idalia has been released, with Moody’s RMS opting for a $3 billion to $5 billion range.

Verisk has estimated that insurance industry losses from recent hurricane Idalia will total between $2.5 billion and $4 billion.

The reinsurance sector will likely only feel a “minimal” impact from hurricane Idalia, as its losses are destined to be largely retained by primary insurers, AM Best has said.

The first post-landfall insurance industry loss estimate for hurricane Idalia has now been revealed and Karen Clark and Company have estimated the wind and surge industry loss at just $2.2 billion.

Early estimates for the insurance and reinsurance industry loss caused by the impacts of hurricane Idalia in Florida and southeastern US states appear to be in a range for roughly $3 billion to $9 billion, with most erring towards the lower-half.

The catastrophe bond market looks set to escape any significant impacts from hurricane Idalia, despite the fact a major storm landfall in the state of Florida is typically seen as one of the main events the cat bond market could be exposed to.

The eventual industry losses from hurricane Idalia are not expected to be that significant, with analysts at KBW saying they could be well below $10 billion, but also explaining that this should help to sustain demand for reinsurance.