CSU maintains well below-normal hurricane forecast. Landfall probabilities down as season progresses

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has stuck with its forecast of well-below normal activity levels for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, while its landfall probability metrics have declined somewhat as the season progresses.

In the CSU team’s June update, they forecast 11 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes this 2026 season, with a forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2026 hurricane season at an Index value of 70, with all numbers lower than its pre-season May forecast.

In the team’s July 8th forecast update, the CSU team called for seasonal numbers of 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, just 1 major hurricane and a seasonal ACE Index value of only 50, so lower still.

Now, with today’s final seasonal update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season from the CSU team, the numbers above from July are unchanged.

However, it’s worth noting those 9 named storms include the two named storms already observed this year, Arthur and Bertha, meaning only 7 named storms are forecast for the rest of the 2026 season, although 4 hurricanes remain forecast as possible.

With the Atlantic hurricane season progressing and now nearing its accepted peak weeks, the CSU team’s figures for landfall probabilities have further declined with the passage of time.

At the June forecast update they were:

• 24% for the entire US coastline, down from 32% in the April forecast (below the 1880 to 2020 average of 43%).
• 11% for the U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida, down from 15% in the April forecast (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) (the average is 21%).
• 14% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle, down from 20% in the April forecast (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville (the average is 27%).
• 26% probability for a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.

At the July 8th forecast update these metrics were reduced to:

• 17% for the entire US coastline.
• 8% for the U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida.
• 10% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle.
• 19% probability for a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.

Now, at the August 5th forecast update they have declined a little further to:

• 16% for the entire US coastline.
• 7% for the U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida.
• 9% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle.
• 17% probability for a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean.

All landfall probability metrics are now well-below their long-term averages (detailed above in the June forecast figures).

The CSU forecast team commented today, “We have maintained our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast for a well below- normal season. El Niño conditions are likely to continue to intensify over the next few months. We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly above their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving very high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

The expectations of meteorological and climatic conditions remain unchanged, with the strong El Nino and expected notable increase in vertical wind shear still the main factors for the well-below normal hurricane season forecast.

Phil Klotzbach, who leads the CSU tropical team’s work, further stated, “he Atlantic’s Main Development Region is slightly warmer than normal, while the eastern subtropical Atlantic is quite warm. Despite relatively hurricane-favorable Atlantic ocean temperature conditions, we expect El Nino to dominate, leading to high shear & a below-normal season.”

Given there is no change to the CSU forecast numbers, our average across the seasonal hurricane forecasts we’ve seen so far remains for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes for the 2026 season in the Atlantic basin, below the longer-term and recent historical seasonal averages. The average for ACE for the season remains 71.

As usual, we repeat our statement that it only requires a single major storm to make landfall in a region with high economic and insured values to drive significant impacts to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets.

The forecast numbers are of course directionally helpful, especially now well into the season, but it is the development of any depressions and the conditions in the Atlantic and Gulf at that time which will continue to need closely watching as ever while the season continues.

Read some articles on the value of seasonal hurricane forecasts:

– Cat bond portfolio construction more important than seasonal hurricane forecasts: Man Group.

– ILS investment outcomes about more than just hurricane season forecasts: Gibson, Schroders Capital.

– Adjusting ILS exposure for July hurricane forecast can deliver excess returns: Euler, TSR study.