2026 Atlantic hurricane season

US weather agency NOAA anticipates an 82% chance of El Niño between May to July and with the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation seen to moderate tropical activity in the Atlantic, the first forecast from NOAA for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is for a 55% chance of below-normal activity levels.

As the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the government of Cayman is considering expanding its hurricane protection by turning to the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market to potentially issue its own catastrophe bond, while simultaneously expanding its parametric insurance coverage too, Cayman Compass reports.

While the broader catastrophe bond market often adopts a wait-and-see posture until the Atlantic hurricane season passes, the current 2026 landscape suggests that the most compelling value may be found during this window of peak uncertainty, according to Ethan Powell, Principal & Chief Investment Officer of Brookmont Capital Management, LLC.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now issued its April forecast update for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing its extended range numbers from December and citing an expectation of moderate to strong El Nino conditions.

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has issued its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for “somewhat below-normal” levels of activity, citing the potential for a robust El Niño and associated increases in vertical wind shear as key factors.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be shaped by shifting climate patterns in the Pacific, as a developing El Niño may influence and perhaps depress tropical storm formation, but a forecast from Accuweather highlights the potential for rapid intensification and warns of three to five direct storm impacts on the United States.

Before the Atlantic hurricane season begins each year, forecasters release activity predictions that can have some influence on reinsurance pricing. However, a recent commentary from global alternative and active investment manager Man Group challenges the accuracy of these forecasts, questioning both their reliability and the benchmarks used to measure success.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has issued its extended range forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, saying it currently anticipates activity levels around the 30-year norm, projecting 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.