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ENSO, La Niña to have strong bearing on 2016 hurricane activity

As we now enter the 2016 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season the topic of uncertainty comes to the fore, as forecasters, meteorologists and analysts all agree that the state of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), and whether it is neutral or La Niña, will have a strong influence on read the full article →

TSR ups 2016 hurricane forecast to above normal, NOAA says average

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), one of the leading forecasters of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, has updated its prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, saying it now expects an above average level of activity. Meanwhile, NOAA has forecast a near normal season in 2016. Back in April TSR, which is supported read the full article →

Chance of La Niña during peak U.S. hurricane season 75%: NOAA

The likelihood that La Niña will develop during the peak of the 2016 Atlantic and U.S. hurricane season is rising, with the U.S. NOAA now putting the probability that we'll see La Niña conditions by September at 75%. The U.S. NOAA has been warning for some time that conditions were becoming read the full article →

La Niña development could mean greater re/insurance industry losses

The U.S. NOAA recently issued an official La Niña watch stating that conditions were favourable for the phenomena to develop within six months, which could result in higher losses for the insurance and reinsurance sector, according to Andrew Siffert of BMS Intermediaries Inc. Following the decline of the recent El Niño read the full article →

El Niño research can aid optimisation of climate risk pooling

New research into the global impacts of El Niño conditions claims to assist with the optimisation of climate risk pooling facilities, providing an opportunity for insurers, reinsurers, and insurance-linked securities (ILS) players to expand their reach and diversify. Pradipta Parhi, a graduate research assistant in Columbia’s Department of Earth and Environmental read the full article →

El Niño in decline but impacting global weather, ~50% chance of La Niña

The current near-record El Niño event appears on the wane, with conditions attributed to the phenomenon said to be in decline, but its effects set to be felt for some time to come, with insurance and reinsurance firms now turning their heads to the possible development of La Niña conditions. The read the full article →

Peru buys catastrophe insurance to protect farmers from El Niño losses

The government of Peru has established a catastrophe insurance facility for the countries farmers, buying a private risk transfer contract to cover around 550,000 hectares of crops, aiming to cover losses up to around $156m. El Seguro Agrario Catastrófico (SAC), or the Agricultural Catastrophe Insurance, will provide cover t eight Andean read the full article →

As El Niño intensifies global drought losses to surpass $8bn: Aon

As the 2015/16 El Niño event intensifies there is an expectation that global economic losses from drought will surpass the previous forecasts of $8 billion, suggesting a growing toll for crop insurance, reinsurance and any ILS investors exposed to agricultural lines. Reinsurance broker Aon Benfield's risk modelling specialist unit Impact Forecasting read the full article →

El Niño forecast suggests one of strongest on record in 2015: NOAA

The latest update and forecast update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the U.S. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests that the current 2015 El Niño could be among the very strongest on record. In July the NOAA forecast said that it was likely that El Niño conditions would be read the full article →

Climate models forecast El Niño to strengthen, persist into 2016

All of the international climate models surveyed by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, for its latest update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), indicate that the current El Niño is likely to strengthen and persist into early 2016. The update published today is aligned with the latest El Niño read the full article →