CatIQ raises Ontario & Quebec thunderstorm insured market loss estimate 17.5% to C$439m

CatIQ, Canada’s insured loss and exposure index provider, has raised its insurance industry loss estimate from the severe thunderstorm event that affected parts of southern Ontario and southern Quebec, between June 30th and July 3rd, 2026, to CAD $439 million, a 17.5% increase from the firm’s initial loss estimate of $374 million.

A series of strong thunderstorms concluded a heatwave that had affected the region at the end of June, resulting in widespread reports of flash flooding, hail measuring up to 40 mm in diameter, and at least two confirmed tornadoes.

CatIQ also previously noted that the National Capital Region experienced periods of torrential rainfall, with Ottawa recording nearly 120 mm on July 1st.

As mentioned, CatIQ came out with its initial insurance industry loss estimate for this severe thunderstorm earlier this month, putting the total at $374 million.

With claims having continued to be filed, the total has begun to rise steadily now, increasing by roughly 17.5% to €439 million for the second industry loss estimate, with growth mainly occurring in commercial lines.

CatIQ’s loss number covers property (both commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims including additional loss adjustment expenses.

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, commented: “The summer of 2026 has been an especially stormy one for many communities in Canada, with eleven catastrophes related to severe convective storms declared since June.

“Notably, many of these events have featured flash flooding as the main driver for insured losses. In fact, several large population centres, including Edmonton and Ottawa, have already recorded their wettest summers on record, with a little more than a month to go until the end of the season.”