el nino

The U.S. NOAA continues to push for a more active 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season, increasing its forecast in an update yesterday and saying that the ending of El Niño, possible onset of La Niña, weaker vertical wind shear and trade winds, all suggest the most active season since 2012.

Having risen at the last forecast release at the start of July, the average forecast for activity in the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season has dropped after forecasters Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) reduced their prediction for the season.

Once again forecasts for tropical storm and hurricane season activity in the Atlantic basin in 2016 are on the rise, with the Colorado State University (CSU) forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach increasing his forecast slightly.

A warming of north Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures in the past month suggests a heightened chance of an active U.S. hurricane season in 2016, causing The Weather Company to increase its forecast numbers by one.

As we now enter the 2016 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season the topic of uncertainty comes to the fore, as forecasters, meteorologists and analysts all agree that the state of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), and whether it is neutral or La Niña, will have a strong influence on activity.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), one of the leading forecasters of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, has updated its prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, saying it now expects an above average level of activity. Meanwhile, NOAA has forecast a near normal season in 2016.

The likelihood that La Niña will develop during the peak of the 2016 Atlantic and U.S. hurricane season is rising, with the U.S. NOAA now putting the probability that we’ll see La Niña conditions by September at 75%.

The U.S. NOAA recently issued an official La Niña watch stating that conditions were favourable for the phenomena to develop within six months, which could result in higher losses for the insurance and reinsurance sector, according to Andrew Siffert of BMS Intermediaries Inc.

New research into the global impacts of El Niño conditions claims to assist with the optimisation of climate risk pooling facilities, providing an opportunity for insurers, reinsurers, and insurance-linked securities (ILS) players to expand their reach and diversify.

The current near-record El Niño event appears on the wane, with conditions attributed to the phenomenon said to be in decline, but its effects set to be felt for some time to come, with insurance and reinsurance firms now turning their heads to the possible development of La Niña conditions.