el nino

The likelihood that La Niña will develop during the peak of the 2016 Atlantic and U.S. hurricane season is rising, with the U.S. NOAA now putting the probability that we’ll see La Niña conditions by September at 75%.

The U.S. NOAA recently issued an official La Niña watch stating that conditions were favourable for the phenomena to develop within six months, which could result in higher losses for the insurance and reinsurance sector, according to Andrew Siffert of BMS Intermediaries Inc.

New research into the global impacts of El Niño conditions claims to assist with the optimisation of climate risk pooling facilities, providing an opportunity for insurers, reinsurers, and insurance-linked securities (ILS) players to expand their reach and diversify.

The current near-record El Niño event appears on the wane, with conditions attributed to the phenomenon said to be in decline, but its effects set to be felt for some time to come, with insurance and reinsurance firms now turning their heads to the possible development of La Niña conditions.

The government of Peru has established a catastrophe insurance facility for the countries farmers, buying a private risk transfer contract to cover around 550,000 hectares of crops, aiming to cover losses up to around $156m.

As the 2015/16 El Niño event intensifies there is an expectation that global economic losses from drought will surpass the previous forecasts of $8 billion, suggesting a growing toll for crop insurance, reinsurance and any ILS investors exposed to agricultural lines.

The latest update and forecast update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the U.S. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests that the current 2015 El Niño could be among the very strongest on record.

All of the international climate models surveyed by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, for its latest update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), indicate that the current El Niño is likely to strengthen and persist into early 2016.

The chances of the current El Niño conditions becoming stronger and also lasting longer into next year have increased, according to the latest update from the U.S. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, who now give an 80% chance it could persist into Spring 2016.

Recent reports that the impending El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean may onset more quickly and be stronger than forecast could be both a help and hindrance to the insurance and reinsurance market, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW).