el nino

While the rising risk of a Super El Niño remains highly uncertain in both geography and magnitude, parametric trigger designs can add a crucial layer of granularity to climate coverage. According to Mark Rueegg, CEO of CelsiusPro Group, this flexibility ultimately allows both insurers and the insured to adapt to volatile climate conditions.

Whilst it appears that a super El Niño could be on the horizon, a new commentary from VP Bank AG authored by Senior Investment Strategist Bernhard Allgäuer indicates that insurance-linked securities (ILS) can provide portfolio diversification as their returns are driven by natural disasters, rather than financial market turmoil, making them largely uncorrelated with traditional […]

In a new report, SCOR Investment Partners has said that while outlooks for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season appear to be more positive compared to recent years, largely due to the emergence of strong El Niño conditions over the summer, portfolio construction remains focused on diversification and resilience, with a key objective of maintaining a high […]

According to a recent paper by catastrophe risk modeler Karen Clark & Company (KCC), while a long-term correlation exists between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and insured property losses, the climate pattern holds relatively little predictive power for any single year.

With the development of a strong El Niño expected to be one of the key drivers of global catastrophe risk during the second half of 2026 and into early 2027, specialist catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) manager Twelve Securis believes that it will also drive a redistribution of risk across the re/insurance and ILS […]

As per Solidum Partners, the onset of an El Niño pattern does not translate into a straightforward rule of thumb for ILS managers and their clients. While a less active hurricane season typically implies downward pressure on nominal spreads, the firm highlights that a broader array of market forces, including capital supply-demand dynamics and total […]

While early forecasts for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season appear mixed, Dr. Benjamin Hohermuth of Schroders Capital ILS suggests that for insurance-linked securities (ILS) portfolios, the regional message is far more important than basin-wide totals. This regional focus creates vital scope for portfolio repositioning ahead of the season and for tactical trading as conditions evolve.

Twelve Securis, the specialist catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) investment manager, has explained that it is “cautious, but optimistic about El Niño’s positive influence on risk” for the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

Coming off a record-breaking 2025, the catastrophe bond market has continued to expand further throughout the opening quarter of 2026, however as the sponsor base and rate of issuance continues to grow, this is creating a need for greater efficiency and more talent within the market, according to Jeff Davis, Partner and Chief Investment Officer, […]

With the development of La Nina conditions anticipated during this summer and its persistence through the autumn, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has called for the Northwest Pacific typhoon season to see activity levels around 20% below normal, albeit still with 15 typhoons, 7 of which are forecast to be intense.