Lala takes aim at Hawaii, could become first US hurricane landfall of 2026

Tropical storm Lala in the central Pacific could make the first United States hurricane landfall of 2026 this weekend, as the storm is forecast to intensify and has the Big Island of Hawaii in its sights.

Tropical storm Lala was named on Thursday and immediately a hurricane watch was raised by the National Hurricane Center, as Lala was forecast to near hurricane strength once it approaches Hawaii on Saturday.

That watch has been upgraded to a hurricane warning and the NHC said in its latest advisory that tropical storm Lala is now forecast to be a hurricane on approach to Big Island, with weather conditions there and across Hawaii set to deteriorate as a result.

Tropical storm Lala currently has sustained winds that max out at around 60 mph, with further strengthening expected.

The NHC noted that the core of storm Lala is expected to near the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, while some model runs show the eye making landfall on that day.

Which would make Lala the first US hurricane landfall of 2026, should that occur.

You can see tropical storm Lala’s latest position and the forecast wind speed intensities below, thanks to Tomer Burg’s excellent PolarWX resources:

Lala could either give the Big Island of Hawaii a glancing blow or make a direct landfall it seems, perhaps also affecting other islands in the chain.

While the insurance-linked securities market does have exposure in Hawaii, through a number of outstanding catastrophe bonds and private ILS or collateralized reinsurance arrangements, at this time a Category 1 Lala as the forecasts suggest, would not pose any meaningful threat to this market.

Specialist ILS manager Twelve Securis commented, “Lala is current forecast to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend as a weak Category 1 hurricane, although a direct landfall along the southern coast of Hawaii’s Big Island remains possible. The southern portion of the Big Island is sparsely populated and includes large areas of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Potential impacts from Lala are expected to be dominated by heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and localised storm surges. No significant ILS impacts are expected.”

That’s not to say there wouldn’t be any insured losses. Any tropical system that brings high winds and heavy rains to the Hawaiian islands has the potential to cause damages, including through landslides and flooding.

But, the cat bond and ILS structures that cover risks in Hawaii are largely focused on protecting insurers against far more intense, higher category, hurricane events, so exposure to a storm like Lala is not considered a concern in the ILS market.

However, our contact Brendan Lane Larson, CEO of AbsoluteClimo, cautioned that any storm that scrapes along the island chain can still drive meaningful human and financial impacts for the local population and economy, given the nature of the geographic topography and the concentration of high value properties and resorts in Hawaii.

The NHC warned of the potential for stronger than anticipated wind speeds for higher ground, while highlighting that high levels of rainfall could be a localised concern, “Tropical Storm Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches across Maui and the Big Island with maximum totals of 25 inches possible across the Big Island. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across the remainder of the island chain. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.”

The latest forecast for tropical storm Lala suggests between 1 and 3 feet of storm surge is possible, enough to cause erosion and potentially other coastal impacts as well.

The Atlantic remains quiet at this time, despite a string of tropical waves emerging off the coast of Africa. While forecast models do show some of these as having the potential to become tropical disturbances, none at this stage are seen as likely to survive their passage west due to dry air, Saharan dust and the wind shear ahead of them.