Atlantic Hurricane Season

Louisiana and the surrounding region faces a difficult few days as tropical storm Barry makes its final approach. The NHC said in its latest update that it still expects hurricane Barry by landfall in the coming hours, as the storm continues to intensify.

Tropical storm Barry has now formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the second named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and is forecast to bring long-duration, torrential rainfall and could intensify into a hurricane Barry by landfall.

Two of the main Atlantic hurricane forecasts have been kept almost static, one citing the slightly reduced chances of an El Niño influence during the season ahead, while at the same time a low pressure disturbance has a good chance of becoming tropical storm Barry in the Gulf later this week.

Interesting news for anyone interested in the forecasts for Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity levels, which let’s face it includes the majority of the ILS and reinsurance markets. The chance of El Niño developing in the coming months appears to have dropped considerably, by one metric.

The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical weather forecasting team has increased its prediction for the number of hurricanes that will form during the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season and also its landfall probabilities, but still cite the significant uncertainty associated with El Nino’s influence this year.

The final updates to forecasts for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season are coming in thick and fast now, with updates from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) and the UK Met Office now raising the average forecast for the season slightly.

The state of Florida remains the most exposed to hurricane driven storm surges, with a huge 2.9 million homes in the state considered exposed which together have a combined reconstruction cost value of a stunning $603 billion.

Climate change is a factor in the intensity of hurricanes that threaten to strike the east coast of the United States, according to researchers who say that CO2 and greenhouse gases are helping to diminish the wind shear that can act as a barrier to storms.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 30% chance that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season sees above normal levels of activity and warns of factors including El Nino and a warmer than normal Atlantic that can affect intensity of the season.

Subtropical storm Andrea has formed in the Atlantic, heading in the general direction of Bermuda and kick starting the 2019 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season in advance of its accepted starting date.