Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hawaii based climate and weather modeling, forecasting and risk management firm AbsoluteClimo has forecast an above average number of Atlantic hurricanes and west-Pacific typhoons will form during the 2019 seasons.

The U.S. east coast is expected to see an about average level of storm activity during the coming 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, but the Gulf of Mexico could differ, with above average activity forecast by the team at North Carolina State University.

Hurricane Michael’s wind speeds at landfall in Florida have been upgraded by the U.S. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center scientists in their final tropical cyclone report, now estimating them as having reached Category 5 at 160 mph.

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season could see as many as 7 hurricanes according to forecaster Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN), who expects that El Niño conditions will weaken and could transition to ENSO neutral by peak hurricane season this year.

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to deliver very slightly below long-term average levels of tropical storm activity, according to industry supported researcher Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

New long-range hurricane forecasts from the Colorado State University and Accuweather forecasting teams both suggest a 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with a roughly average level of storm activity is most likely.

An early 2019 hurricane season forecast from suggests this year could see a little less Atlantic tropical storm related activity than normal overall, but the recently begun El Niño events strength and persistence is expected to be a major factor here.

The first long-range outlooks and forecasts for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season both suggest an average level of storm activity, but note some uncertainty over whether an El Niño event occurs and how strong the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) trend is.

Hurricane Michael will result in an insurance and reinsurance market loss of close to $8 billion from wind and storm surge, excluding NFIP losses, according to catastrophe risk modelling specialists Karen Clark & Co.

The reinsurance market and as a result some collateralized providers of reinsurance capital may take a greater share of losses from hurricane Michael’s Florida and beyond impacts than they did for last month’s hurricane Florence, according to analysts.