Hawaii based climate and weather modeling, forecasting and risk management firm AbsoluteClimo has forecast an above average number of Atlantic hurricanes and west-Pacific typhoons will form during the 2019 seasons.
The forecast goes a little against the grain of other meteorological organisations, who currently predict a relatively average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin at least.
Currently, of the hurricane forecasters we track here on Artemis, over on our 2019 Atlantic hurricane season page, the average forecast is for 6 hurricanes to form during the fast-approaching season that officially begins on June 1st.
However, AbsoluteClimo’s probabilistic seasonal forecast suggests that 9 hurricanes will form during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, significantly above the other forecasters.
AbsoluteClimo’s forecasts are based on a forward-looking view of climate related risks, integrating global climate physics with finance and risk disciplines, aided by computer science, machine learning and domain specific business experience.
The company recently launched its ClimoCats climate catastrophe risk models, which derive forward-looking data points for the risk and other industries using a climate physics prediction engine and machine learning to link climate physics (such as temperature, rainfall, wind, etc.) with specific perils resulting in casualties and financial losses driven by climate change and variability.
AbsoluteClimo’s forecasts also include a risk direction forecast, that gives the probability of the forecast exceeding the mean expected outcome.
For the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, while the expected outcome is for 9 hurricanes to form, the range given is from as few as 5 hurricanes to as many as 13, depending on the probability of exceedance.
For the west-Pacific typhoon season, AbsoluteClimo predicts 16 typhoons will form, which is just slightly above the average of 15.
The range of probabilities gives a range of potential typhoons from 11 to as many as 24 during the 2019 season.
Artemis, Brendan Lane Larson, Co-Founder, Climatologist, Physical Meteorologist at AbsoluteClimo, commented on the forecasts, “Though Clim๏Cats is not a panacea, AbsoluteClimo is happy to help the world take a major step forward with our forward-looking climate risk assessment tools vs. the traditional historical data methods, so everyone — both insurers and buyers of insurance — can better understand, price, plan and hedge climate-driven risk.”
It’s worth noting that these forecasts were originally delivered by AbsoluteClimo’s technology back in December 2018, so it will be interesting to see how they stack up against the more traditional meteorological predictions.
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