Aon estimates global insured catastrophe losses at $47bn for H1 2026

Insured losses from catastrophe events across the globe in the first half of 2026 are estimated to have reached $47 billion, significantly down on last year’s $100 billion, with severe convective storms (SCS) including hail, damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes, remaining the costliest insured peril on a global basis, according to broker Aon.

The re/insurance broking group’s Catastrophe Insight team has published its Global Catastrophe Recap Report for the first half of 2026, which examines loss activity seen throughout the period.

Aon’s estimate compares to broker Gallagher Re, who recently estimated that total insured losses from catastrophe events across the globe in H1 2026 would be at least $46 billion.

At $47 billion, while this indicates that global catastrophe losses have remained below average, Aon’s report highlights that the first half of the year still included an average number of billion-dollar disasters, above-average insured loss events and several record-setting regional catastrophes.

In addition, Aon noted that global economic losses totaled $111 billion during the period, 25% below the 21st-century average and also marks the lowest first half total recorded since 2018.

However, despite this decline, the period still produced 23 billion-dollar economic loss events, matching the long-term average, as well as 13 billion-dollar insured loss events, exceeding the historical average of 10 billion-dollar insured loss events.

“Among the period’s defining events were the Venezuela earthquake (preliminary $20-30 billion economic loss), Portugal’s costliest windstorm on record ($4.4 billion economic loss) and an active SCS season across the U.S. ($34 billion economic loss). Together, these events highlight the importance of looking beyond aggregate loss totals to understand how catastrophe risk is evolving across regions and perils,” Aon explained.

The broker specifically emphasised how the relationship between tornado activity and insured losses in the Midwestern U.S. illustrates this dynamic.

By mid-year 2026, Illinois reportedly recorded approximately four times its long-term average and both Illinois and Indiana established new annual tornado records. However, despite this unprecedented activity, insured losses from U.S. severe convective storms totaled approximately $27 billion in H1 2026, considerably below the $40 billion-plus recorded in H1 of years 2023-2025.

As mentioned, severe convective storms remained the costliest insured peril globally. Aon’s report noted that the U.S. outbreak from April 23rd to 29th was the largest insured catastrophe event of the first half of 2026, generating more than $5 billion in insured losses.

According to Aon, U.S. natural catastrophe events generated roughly $36 billion in insured losses, accounting for about 75% of the total global insured losses for the first half of 2026.

Overall, the U.S. experienced 11 insured events that each exceeded a billion dollars, which comprised nine SCS outbreaks and two winter storm events.

While SCS remained the dominant driver of insured losses in H1’26, the period also demonstrated how catastrophe impacts can extend beyond traditional loss metrics.

The broker highlighted how Europe’s recent record-breaking heatwave has demonstrated how climate-related extremes can create significant human, operational and societal impacts that are not always fully reflected in insured loss totals.

“During late June, 17 European countries exceeded their all-time June temperature records, with temperatures surpassing 40°C (104°F) across much of the continent. The event contributed to thousands of fatalities, including more than 1,000 deaths across France, the UK, Spain and Belgium, making it one of Europe’s most significant heat events on record,” Aon explained.

Michal Lörinc, head of catastrophe insight for Aon, commented: “Headline global loss figures can obscure where risk is actually accumulating. The first half of 2026 showed how regional events can have significant financial, operational and human consequences even when global loss totals appear moderate. Looking beyond the global total provides a clear view of the impacts facing communities and organizations.”

Liz Henderson, global head of climate risk advisory for Aon, added: “Historical loss experience is becoming a less reliable guide to future risk. Events like this year’s European heatwaves demonstrate how emerging vulnerabilities can create new areas of risk that may not always be reflected in insured losses. Understanding these trends is increasingly important to long-term decision making.”