Gallagher Re estimates global insured cat losses at $46bn for H1’26, 28% below 10-year average

Insured losses from natural catastrophe events across the globe in the first half of 2026 are estimated to have reached USD $46 billion, down on last year’s $84 billion and 28% below the 10-year average of $64 billion, according to reinsurance broker Gallagher Re’s H1 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.

At $46 billion, H1’26 losses from nat cat events marks the lowest H1 insured loss total recorded since 2018.

At the same time, the broker’s report notes that the first half of this year marked the fifth consecutive quarter without a single insured cat loss exceeding $10 billion, which heavily reflects a period of relatively benign loss activity for the global insurance sector.

The broker highlighted that in H1’26, only 11 events generated insured losses of more than $1 billion, compared with a 10-year average of 16.

In addition, Gallagher Re noted that economic losses also fell in the first half of 2026 to $142 billion, which is 10% below the 10-year average.

In total, there were 30 billion-dollar economic loss events globally, compared with a 10-year average of 33.

Around $26 billion of the insured cat loss total for H1’26 is attributed to severe convective storms, which the broker says remains the costliest insurance peril in North America.

However, while global catastrophe losses in H1’26 have remained below average, Gallagher Re highlights the continuing evolution of global risk, highlighted by unprecedented early summer heat in Europe, and the emergence of El Niño conditions during June.

In fact, the broker points out that forecasters have assigned a 97.4% probability that 2026 will finish amongst the five warmest years ever recorded, as multiple countries in Europe have recorded all-time temperature records during a prolonged June heatwave.

Given that El Niño is generally associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, Gallagher Re cautions that the phenomenon shifts risk rather than removing it entirely, while flagging how history also shows that dangerous and damaging storms are possible during in El Niño years.

In addition, the broker’s report also highlights persistent weather extremes across multiple regions, including record heat across Europe, the devastating earthquake sequence in Venezuela, drought concerns in parts of North and South America, as well as severe flooding events in both China and Canada, and ongoing severe convective storm activity in the United States.

Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, commented: “While the headline loss figures generate most attention, we are continuing to observe meaningful weather signals and shifts in longer-term climate patterns that are bringing greater impact to the world. The emergence of what could be one of the stronger El Niño phases of ENSO in the modern record may not bring record-breaking losses, but the societal implications are considerable. The compounding nature of a strong El Niño in conjunction with ongoing atmospheric and oceanic warming will only further influence how risk develops across different regions of the world.”

Bowen continued: “The record-breaking heat observed in parts of Europe during May and June this year is another reminder that weather extremes can cause great humanitarian risk and impact without causing widespread physical damage. The insurance industry’s property sector continues to pay closer attention to how heat-related claims can drive physical damage through degradation of structural foundations, but also additional stresses linked to commercial business interruption.”

Concluding: “At the same time, the arrival of El Niño may signify a reduced frequency of Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but it does not eliminate the potential for landfall. This phenomenon should instead reinforce the need to look beyond seasonal storm counts and focus on how risk may shift geographically. For insurers, reinsurers, businesses, and governments alike, resilience depends on understanding not only how much risk exists, but where risk profiles may be evolving.”