2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Update: See the latest forecast and information here. Forecast models continue to point to the possibility of a hurricane forming and impacting the United States, with landfall of what is likely to be storm or hurricane Ida possible along the Gulf Coast, somewhere from Texas to Louisiana, very early next week.

Catastrophe risk modelling firm Karen Clark & Company (KCC) is the first to provide a modelled estimate of insurance and reinsurance market losses from hurricane Henri and it’s much lower than many will have been expecting.

Forecast models suggest a chance of a new tropical storm developing later this week or into the weekend, with some longer-range model runs suggesting a possible hurricane threat for the US Gulf Coast early next week.

The fact hurricane Henri weakened over cooler waters as it approached the US northeast states and made landfall as a tropical storm has likely saved the reinsurance and ILS industry from more significant losses, with Henri’s industry loss likely to fall below one billion dollars.

In an update today, specialist catastrophe bond, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance investment manager Twelve Capital said that, as hurricane Henri weakened prior to making landfall, it now doesn’t expect any impact to positions in its ILS funds.

Despite having weakened to a tropical storm before landfall, Henri may still affect some aggregate catastrophe bonds, resulting either in some aggregate deductible erosion, or simply driving a price reaction in the secondary market, Plenum Investments has said.

Hurricane Henri weakened back into a tropical storm before making landfall yesterday in Rhode Island, but 140,000 homes are reported without power across the northeast and flash flooding affected parts of New York, New Jersey and the Tri States, with more heavy rainfall from Henri forecast for today.

Specialist catastrophe bond, insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance investment manager Twelve Capital has said that hurricane Henri, which is heading for the US northeast states, is not expected to cause a significant impact to its ILS funds.

Hurricane Henri is tracking to the north over the warm Gulf Stream waters and is forecast to to head towards the US northeast states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York, with landfall in New York or New England expected on Sunday.

Hurricane Grace is soon to make landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, with sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts closer to 100 mph and a dangerous storm surge expected.