2018 hurricane season

The U.S. east coast is expected to see an about average level of storm activity during the coming 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, but the Gulf of Mexico could differ, with above average activity forecast by the team at North Carolina State University.

The eventual industry loss to insurance and reinsurance interests from tropical storm Gordon’s impacts in the Gulf Coast region and inland, after its Tuesday evening landfall, are not expected to be significant, with catastrophe risk modelling specialists Karen Clark & Co. estimating an industry loss of just $125 million.

Tropical storm Gordon is now anticipated to reach category 1 wind speeds and become hurricane Gordon by the time it makes landfall in the north central Gulf Coast region later today.

Potential tropical cyclone seven is likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon in the coming hours and this seventh named storm of the 2018 Hurricane Season is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and heads north-west.

Long-range weather forecast model runs show a chance of Atlantic tropical systems forming in the next fortnight, with some being given as much as a 60% chance of becoming a named storm, while another has a lower probability being further out, but if it transpires it could be more impactful to insurance and reinsurance.

Hurricane Lane continues to track towards the Hawaii island chain as a category 3 storm this morning with sustained winds of up to 120 mph, some higher gusts and it remains the rainfall impacts that are most severe currently and any reinsurance or ILS market exposure is likely through aggregate contracts.

Hurricane Lane continues to track towards the islands of Hawaii as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 145 mph and higher gusts, but with a direct landfall unlikely it is the rainfall threat that is of greatest concern, with as much as $8 billion of property reconstruction values in the storm’s path.

The U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the latest to reduce its forecast for the numbers of storms and hurricanes that will occur during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, as its Climate Prediction Center raises the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), an insurance and reinsurance industry supported tropical weather research and forecasting team, has raised its prediction for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, but still forecasts a below normal level of activity across the season.

The Colorado State University tropical weather forecasting team led by Phil Klotzbach is anticipating just 3 more hurricanes will form during the remainder of this 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and that only one of those will become a major hurricane, as cooler seas continue to predict a below average year.