WeatherAction are a high profile weather forecasting consultancy run by Piers Corbyn. They are renowned for their levels of accuracy in longrange forecasting by some and have been widely published although they do have their detractors.
They’ve been trialling some new extreme event forecasts the latest of which was released yesterday:
Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction Long range forecasters today (June 12 ) – in a dramatic new move towards developing long range extreme weather forecasts for anywhere in the world – predicted that the first tropical storm of the US season will form (85% likely) around 18th June.
“We expect it to start in the Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico region and soon develop into Hurricane strength and make landfall (75% likely) or near landfall by 21 or 22 June in Florida / Southern States or possibly Cuba or
(less likley) the west side of the Gulf .
“This Tropical storm will be associated with severe tornado events in central / SouthEast parts of the USA while New York /NorthEast USA are likely to be unusually cold” said Mr Corbyn. “After that we are 90% confident the storm will quickly die and the period 23 June to 5 July will be essentially storm free” he said.
Currently none of the official U.S. hurricane forecasting services are predicting any tropical storms.
This is the 5th of WeatherAction’s trial forecasts of extreme weather events in the USA this year. The success rate (for three major blizzards and a spell of severe tornadoes) is 4/4 so far which in my view makes that period worth keeping an eye on. So don’t forget to bookmark our 2008 Atlantic Tropical Storm Season page!