Below average 2026 hurricane forecasts continue with latest from TSR and UK Met Office

The latest forecasts of predicted activity levels for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season continue to point to a below-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes forming this year, with updates from Tropical Storm Risk and the UK Met Office available today.

All forecasters are calling for below-normal levels of storm formation for the Atlantic basin in the 2026 hurricane season, but there is some caution over the influencing factor of El Niño and precisely how that affects the chances of intensification for any storms that do form and head towards land.

The UK Met Office calls for between 6 and 12 named storms to form, with a most likely number of 9. For hurricanes the forecaster calls for between 3 and 7, with a most likely number of 5.

The long-term 1991 to 2020 average for named storms in the Atlantic is 14 and for hurricanes 7.

For major hurricanes, with Category 3 or greater wind speeds, the UK Met Office forecasts between 1 and 3, with a most likely number of 2. Again lower than the long-term average of 3.

On Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index expectations for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, this forecaster calls for between 34 and 110, with a most likely value of 72. The long-term average for the ACE Index is 121.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Risk provided its latest hurricane forecast update today and again slightly reduced it.

Previously, at its April forecast update, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) had reduced its previous figures from its long-range forecast to 12 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and just 1 major hurricane for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with expected accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 66.

In the May 28th update, TSR reduced its forecast numbers again, now predicting 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricanes, with ACE of 55.

TSR continues to see the Atlantic hurricane season as likely to feature below-normal activity levels, with its updated forecast numbers now calling for activity around 40% below the 1991-2020 climatology.

“TSR uses the forecast August-September sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (10º-20ºN, 60º-20ºW) and the forecast July-September Caribbean trade wind anomaly over the region 7.5º-17.5ºN, 100º-30ºW as predictors. The former is forecast to be slightly warmer than average and the latter is predicted to be stronger than normal due to a predicted moderate or strong El Niño through summer and autumn 2026,” the forecaster said.

TSR’s forecast for US landfalling storms for the 2026 season remain unchanged, at 1 hurricane and 3 tropical storms to hit the coastline, below the 30-year norm of 1.6 and 3.8 respectively.

TSR did note some uncertainties in its latest forecast, such as just how warm the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) will be this year, as models predict it could be warmer than average and this has implications for the area storms tend to form in.

The strength of El Nino is also uncertain still, although forecasts all point to it being relatively strong.

When including all of the seasonal hurricane forecasts we’ve seen so far, the average across them is now 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes during the 2026 season in the Atlantic basin, which is below the longer-term and recent historical seasonal averages. The average for hurricane forecast numbers has come down from 6 with these latest updates.

As we always state, just one major storm that makes landfall in a region with high economic and insured values can drive significant impacts to the insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bond and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets. A forecast for lower storm numbers does not mean a greatly reduced chance of damaging hurricane events.

Already there have been weather forecast model runs showing potential for storm formation in recent days, with a focus on the Gulf or Southeast US. While these have been considered model oddities and disappeared in later model runs, it does suggest convection is occurring in regions where the models typically consider storm formation is possible.

Read some articles on the value of seasonal hurricane forecasts:

– Cat bond portfolio construction more important than seasonal hurricane forecasts: Man Group.

– ILS investment outcomes about more than just hurricane season forecasts: Gibson, Schroders Capital.

– Adjusting ILS exposure for July hurricane forecast can deliver excess returns: Euler, TSR study.