Atlantic Hurricane Season

At this time the catastrophe bond market has not shown a significant reaction to the slow approach of hurricane Matthew towards the U.S. coastline, despite the fact that the forecast path has been shifting steadily nearer to Florida with each NOAA update and now a hurricane watch has been announced.

Hurricane Matthew remains a major storm with 145mph winds as it barrels towards a potentially devastating strike on Haiti and Cuba. The Bahamas are next in its path and the risk of a U.S. landfall has risen, according to the forecast, with Florida and the Carolinas now in the forecast cone.

Hurricane Matthew has now intensified into a Category 4 storm, with sustained winds of 130mph (as at Monday morning) and higher gusts, as it continues its westward track through the Caribbean. A northward turn has targeted major hurricane Matthew towards Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.

Up to Friday evening hurricane Hermine is estimated to have caused an insurance and reinsurance industry loss approaching $500m, with economic loss approaching $1 billion, according to catastrophe risk management and modelling firm Karen Clark & Company (KCC).

Hurricane Hermine made landfall at around 01:30ET Florida Big Bend coast just east of St. Marks, Florida, near the Wakulla-Jefferson County line with sustained winds of 80mph and central pressure of 982mb. While that area took the brunt of the winds and storm surge, meteorologists forecast widespread impacts from Hermine into Labour Day as far […]

Potential losses from hurricane Hermine, which became a Category 1 hurricane and is heading for landfall tonight in northwest Florida, are expected to be manageable for insurance and reinsurance capital, according to analysis from analysts Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) and risk modelling firms.

Updated 15:00 ET: Invest 99L, or tropical depression 9, which we’ve been tracking for over a week reached tropical storm status and has just been upgraded to Hurricane Hermine by NOAA. The storm, which is tracking towards the Florida panhandle, is forecast to remain a hurricane until landfall, breaking Florida’s ten plus year hurricane drought.

All eyes in Florida and the Gulf Coast states will be on Invest 99L, a strong tropical low that is currently tracking west-north-west between Cuba and the Bahamas towards Florida, could develop into named tropical storm Hermine and which is forecast to pass into the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. NOAA continues to push for a more active 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season, increasing its forecast in an update yesterday and saying that the ending of El Niño, possible onset of La Niña, weaker vertical wind shear and trade winds, all suggest the most active season since 2012.

Having risen at the last forecast release at the start of July, the average forecast for activity in the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season has dropped after forecasters Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) reduced their prediction for the season.