Swiss Re Insurance-Linked Fund Management

Original Risk: A Society for Change Agents

2016 hurricane season forecasts drop slightly on weaker La Niña


Having risen at the last forecast release at the start of July, the average forecast for activity in the 2016 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season has dropped after forecasters Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) reduced their prediction for the season.

Hurricane Patricia seen from the International Space Station (ISS)Both the TSR and the Colorado State University (CSU) forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach have released new updates on their expectations for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

With 5 named tropical storms having formed to date, 2 of which intensified into hurricanes, the 2016 season had begun with a reasonable level of activity. However, despite very warm sea surface temperatures other factors, to do with wind sheer, high pressure and dust blowing into the Atlantic from Africa, have been hindering development across the Atlantic basin.

CSU forecaster Klotzbach has kept his forecast the same as the early July update, predicting a total of 15 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of category 3 or stronger.

Meanwhile the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) forecasting team has reduced its prediction for the season, down from the May update where TSR increased its forecast to 17 named tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes, to a much more average 15 named tropical storms, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.

The main reason for the reduction in the forecast by TSR is that La Niña conditions are now thought to be developing more slowly, than had been anticipated prior to the season beginning.

As a result, the expectation is that La Niña will only be a minor factor in the peak of the hurricane season, compared to the previous forecasts suggesting a moderately intense La Niña. Additionally the trade winds are expected to have a moderating effect on hurricane potential across the Atlantic basin.

However sea surface temperatures remain conducive to development, both in the core Atlantic formation zones as well as in the Gulf of Mexico and near the U.S. south-east coastline. This means that any storms that do form have a chance to intensify, so the season could reveal storms that threaten the U.S. quite suddenly, particularly in the Gulf and off the coast of Florida where SST’s are high.

As a result of the newly reduced forecast from TSR, we’ve also reduced our average, giving us an Artemis average forecast for the 2016 hurricane season of 14.1 named storms, 7.3 hurricanes and 3.2 intense hurricanes, which is still above average the long-term averages for a season.

Also read:

2016 hurricane forecast increased by Colorado State meteorologist.

Warming Atlantic means higher hurricane forecast for 2016: Weather Company.

ENSO, La Niña to have strong bearing on 2016 hurricane activity.

TSR ups 2016 hurricane forecast to above normal, NOAA says average.

Chance of La Niña during peak U.S. hurricane season 75%: NOAA.

Register today for ILS NYC 2023, our next insurance-linked securities (ILS) market conference. Held in New York City, February 10th, 2023.

Artemis ILS NYC 2023 - Insurance-linked securities conference in New York City

Get a ticket soon to ensure you can attend. Secure your place at the event here!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Artemis Newsletters and Email Alerts

Receive a regular weekly email newsletter update containing all the top news stories, deals and event information

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Receive alert notifications by email for every article from Artemis as it gets published.