Tropical weather forecasters at the Weather Company have increased their forecast for 2017 Atlantic tropical storm & hurricane season activity, citing a warming Atlantic ocean and climate models that increasingly lean towards La Nina conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The Weather Company’s last tropical Atlantic forecast called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, but those figures have now been increased to a prediction of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, which would be an active season.
The forecaster notes that these figures are now higher than both the long-term 1950-2016 normals of 12/7/3 and the recent “active period” (1995-2016) normals of 15/8/3.
Warmer ocean surface temperatures and the lessening chances of an El Nino are the two major factors that have caused the Weather Company to increase its forecast, as well as the fact the seasons activity has started briskly, with 8 named storms and 2 hurricanes already.
Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, commented; “We are already off to a fast start to the 2017 tropical season. As the positive ocean temperature anomalies in tropical Atlantic continue to increase and the model trends lean more towards La Nina conditions heading through the peak of the season, we have no choice but to raise our numbers further.”
Crawford also explained that the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season could be a little unusual, with activity perhaps falling at less typical times of the season.
“There will likely be significant sub-seasonal fluctuations in activity levels, such that the peak of the season may be less active than normal but that both sides of the peak will be unusually active,” he explained.
The addition of this updated forecast to our the others we track here at Artemis, gives us an average forecast for the 2017 Atlantic tropical storm season of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Track the season as it continues over at our dedicated 2017 Atlantic hurricane season page.