The tropical Atlantic has warmed up and the latest and eighth storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, tropical storm Humberto, is spinning in the mid-Atlantic with winds of 60mph and forecasts believe Humberto will become a hurricane over the next 24 hours.
Despite the forecasts for Humberto to reach hurricane status with winds of 80mph over the next day or so there is nothing for reinsurers and investors in catastrophe bonds to be worried about right now as Humberto looks set to turn northwards.
Tropical storm Humberto is already moving north-west and a turn towards the north is forecast over the next day. By the weekend Humberto should have been a hurricane and then perhaps been downgraded back to tropical storm status, as its northward track will take it over cooler waters.
Humberto is then forecast to turn back to the west, after which the forecast models diverge in its future path. At the moment the majority of forecasters do not suggest Humberto will turn and make its way across the Atlantic. We’ll update you should that change. You can see tropical storm Humberto’s current position and forecast path below.
Perhaps of more worry for reinsurers may be the remnants of tropical storm Gabrielle, which is approaching Bermuda from the south and could become a tropical storm for the second time. If this does happen Gabrielle could move very near to Bermuda but the forecast does not suggest much in the way of intensification, so if that happens it is likely to give Bermudian reinsurers a soaking.
Keep track of the advance of Humberto and potential for Gabrielle to reform on our 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season page.