typhoon Hagibis 2019

A number of insurance-linked securities (ILS) fund managers have adjusted their Japanese typhoon Hagibis loss reserves or side pockets in November, resulting in some positive and negative movements, we understand.

The General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) has updated its numbers on recent catastrophes, now saying that domestic insurers in the country have paid out US $6.83 billion in claims for typhoon Faxai, typhoon Hagibis and a heavy rainfall event that closely followed these storms.

Opinions differ dramatically when it comes to estimating industry insured losses from typhoon Hagibis it seems, with global reinsurance giant Swiss Re opting for just $8 billion.

The market is increasingly confident that industry losses from recent Japanese typhoon Hagibis and also 2018’s typhoon Jebi will ultimately stabilise below the top-end of estimates, good news for those that reserved conservatively and for those for who Jebi loss creep has been a significant issue.

Spanish insurance and reinsurance group Mapfre said it believes typhoons Faxai and Hagibis will drive more than US $20 billion of industry losses to the sector, while it expects to take a hit of around $156 million, including some impacts from recent rioting in Chile.

There are fears in the market that typhoon Hagibis is going to end up repeating what was seen with last year’s typhoon Jebi, with loss creep emerging after the April reinsurance renewal again, potentially to the detriment of those hoping for significant rate increases.

The share price for the interval-style mutual insurance-linked securities (ILS) fund operated by Stone Ridge Asset Management has now declined by almost 5% since the impact of typhoon Hagibis in Japan.

Bermudian specialist insurance and reinsurance firm AXIS Capital Holdings Limited has estimated its losses from recent Japanese typhoon Hagibis at somewhere between $90 million and $110 million, net of accounting for recoveries from reinsurance and retrocession.

Retrocessional reinsurance focused investment manager Markel CATCo Investment Management expects that the combined impacts of recent catastrophe events typhoon Hagibis, typhoon Faxai and hurricane Dorian will result in a roughly 25% impact to capital deployed in the 2019 portfolio of its listed fund.

The General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) has reported that already domestic insurers in the country have paid out just under US $2.5 billion for claims from typhoon Faxai, while for more recent typhoon Hagibis the claims are still mounting up.