hurricane

An early 2019 hurricane season forecast from suggests this year could see a little less Atlantic tropical storm related activity than normal overall, but the recently begun El Niño events strength and persistence is expected to be a major factor here.

The first long-range outlooks and forecasts for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season both suggest an average level of storm activity, but note some uncertainty over whether an El Niño event occurs and how strong the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) trend is.

ILS and some reinsurance markets are beginning to show signs of fearing and in some cases expecting an Irma-like loss creep to occur with more recent hurricane Michael, leading some to even suggest that the industry insured loss could near $12 billion.

According to the state’s Governor Roy Cooper, the economic impact of hurricane Florence on North Carolina could reach as high as $17 billion, which would put the percentage covered by private insurance as low as 27%.

The industry loss to insurance and reinsurance interests from hurricane Michael is estimated to be somewhere between $6.8 billion and $10 billion by RMS, with the majority driven by wind damage to residential properties.

Insurance carriers reviewed by Demotech all have the capital and reinsurance backing that is required for them to respond to claims in the wake of hurricane Michael, a storm that may have caused as much as $15 billion to $20 billion of insured losses according to the firm.

Reinsurance pricing at the upcoming key January 2019 renewals could be supported by the active hurricane season and the unique features of recent storms, meaning rates may hold up better than had been anticipated, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysts.

Hurricane Michael is estimated to have caused the insurance and reinsurance industry a loss in the range of $6 billion to $10 billion by catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide.

U.S. primary insurer FedNat expects to pass on most of its losses from hurricane Michael to its reinsurance providers, with an estimated $275 million gross loss anticipated, but as little as $23 million expected to be retained by the firm.

The eventual insurance and reinsurance industry loss from last weeks hurricane Michael is not expected to trigger any of its catastrophe bond positions, according to specialist insurance-linked securities (ILS) investment manager Plenum.