hurricane Florence 2018

Hurricane industry losses from the 2018 season have risen with hurricane Michael now estimated to have caused an industry loss of $11 billion, while hurricane Florence is estimated at $5.5 billion, both according to insurance and reinsurance broker Aon.

According to the state’s Governor Roy Cooper, the economic impact of hurricane Florence on North Carolina could reach as high as $17 billion, which would put the percentage covered by private insurance as low as 27%.

Global reinsurance company Swiss Re has estimated that its third-quarter 2018 large loss burden will amount to roughly $1.4 billion after retrocession, with natural catastrophes driving the majority and typhoon Jebi the most costly event of the quarter.

Reinsurance pricing at the upcoming key January 2019 renewals could be supported by the active hurricane season and the unique features of recent storms, meaning rates may hold up better than had been anticipated, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysts.

Differences between estimates are again evident in the catastrophe risk modelling space, as Corelogic delivers a figure for hurricane Florence’s flood insurance industry losses that suggests the NFIP’s flood reinsurance program is still in the frame to be triggered.

The insurance and reinsurance market-wide loss from recent hurricane Florence’s impacts in the Carolina’s and surrounding region of the United States is expected to be in a range from $2.8 billion to as much as $5 billion and this is including an NFIP flood insurance claims estimate.

Collateralized reinsurance quota shares and retrocessional protections that sit in lower layers of cedant’s towers are the most likely source of ILS market losses from hurricane Florence, according to rating agency Fitch.

Valuations of some of the listed and mutual insurance-linked securities (ILS) fund strategies have stabilised or even begun to recover after hurricane Florence’s impacts proved to be less severe to ILS investments than had initially been anticipated.

The insurance-linked securities (ILS) industry and third-party reinsurance capital providers recognised that hurricane Florence would not be a market-changing event and reacted accordingly.

The impact to insurance and reinsurance interests from the wind and storm surge damage caused by hurricane Florence is estimated to be in a range from $1.7 billion to as much as $4.6 billion, by AIR Worldwide.