2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Velocity Risk, the catastrophe exposed property insurance specialist E&S managing general agency (MGA) and holding company, has partnered with Louisiana State University to develop a Gulf of Mexico focused hurricane risk model, with the forecast for the 2024 season being that the region will see 12 storms.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is underway with the first named tropical storm, Alberto, having formed today, as a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico gains more structure and is now expected to head for Mexico bringing torrential rains and a warning of flooding.

For the catastrophe bond market, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could result in zero impact or significant losses, depending on where storms form, where they head towards, how much they intensify and where they make landfall, while the forecast data suggests a wide-range of possible loss outcomes, catastrophe bond investment manager Icosa Investments has said.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team has maintained its forecast for an extremely active  2024 Atlantic hurricane season, still calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, while citing an expectation of elevated landfall risk, that La Niña conditions will emerge and also highlighting record warm sea surface temperatures (SST’s).

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has today updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now saying that it anticipates one additional hurricane will form, with one more expected to reach Category 3 or greater wind speeds, making for what it still expects to be a “hyperactive” year.

The US weather service NOAA and the UK’s Met Office have both issued forecasts that join others in suggesting the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be a very active one, with each opting for storm numbers well above the average and NOAA saying it looks likely to be an “extraordinary” year.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, has now released its outlook for the full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 23 named storms and 13 hurricanes to form.

In a sign of what could be to come through the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and a clear signal of the elevated ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) has already designated the first disturbance of 2024.

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be among the most active ever, while they also warn of a strong Bermuda High that could set in and steer storms further west towards the United States and Caribbean.

Researchers from North Carolina State University have forecast that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one, with the number of named storms predicted to be “significantly higher than the long-term average” and a special mention for the Gulf of Mexico, with up to seven named storms expected there.