2018 Atlantic tropical storm season

The Colorado State University tropical weather forecasting team, the Tropical Storm Risks forecasters and the Weatherbell team have all toned down their forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, pointing to cooling of Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

The level of industry losses faced by insurance and reinsurance interests after the impacts of sub-tropical storm Alberto in the United States is expected to be minimal, with catastrophe risk modellers Karen Clark & Company estimating that the insured impact will be close to $50 million.

Sub-tropical storm Alberto, the first named cyclone that has formed just in advance of the official start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, is now approaching the Gulf Coast with sustained winds that have intensified to 65mph and is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be characterised by activity levels that are either normal or above-normal, by the U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which forecasts 10 to 16 named tropical storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes during the season ahead.

Given the fact that sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic are running below normal there is a chance that the basin-wide hurricane forecasts for 2018 could be reduced rather than raised at their next updates, according to JLT Re.

Tropical weather and risk analytics provider Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has boasted of more accurate hurricane track forecasts for 2017’s active wind season than were provided by the ECMWF weather model or the National Hurricane Center.

There is some divergence between forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, with some forecasters opting for above average levels of storm activity, while others like the Weather Company are opting for something closer to an average season.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature significantly above long-term average levels of activity by researchers from North Carolina State University, who suggest that as many as 18 named tropical storms and hurricanes could form this year.

Early forecasts of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane and tropical storm activity for 2018 are pointing towards a year with a slightly above average number of named storms and hurricanes, while landfall probabilities are also seen as slightly above normal as well.

Atlantic basin hurricane activity in 2018 is currently seen as most likely to be above normal by a range of scientists, as climate related factors point to seasonal activity being heightened with a greater chance of landfalls in the United States.