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RMS pegs storm Dudley & Eunice loss at up to EUR 4.5 billion


Catastrophe risk modeller RMS has estimated that insurance and reinsurance markets face losses of up to EUR 4.5 billion from recent European windstorms Dudley (Ylenia) and Eunice (Zeynep), while Eunice alone could be as high as EUR 3.5 billion, the modeller believes.

rms-logoRMS said late Friday that insured losses from windstorms Dudley and Eunice, also known as Ylenia and Zeynep, will likely fall between EUR 3 and 4.5 billion (US $3.4 and $5.1 billion).

Germany is expected to bear the brunt of the insured losses, with around 40 percent of the total loss expected to fall there.

After that, the Netherlands is expected to be next at around 20 percent, and the United Kingdom after that at around 15 percent.

But RMS notes that the impacts of these storms was felt more widely, with them affecting Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia as well, between February 16-19, 2022.

RMS’s estimate compares to Verisk’s (AIR) EUR 3 to 5 billion estimate for losses from Dudley and Eunice and Fitch Ratings up to EUR 5 billion for losses from Dudley, Eunice and Franklin but only in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.

RMS also focused in on Eunice, the most damaging of the European windstorms to sweep across the continent in recent weeks.

RMS estimates that Eunice will contribute between EUR 2.5 and 3.5 billion (US $2.8 and $4.0 billion) of the overall insured loss total.

At that level of insurance and reinsurance market loss, Eunice would rank as the most damaging European windstorm event since Kyrill in 2007, RMS said.

RMS said its estimates include damage to property, automobiles, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but exclude losses from damage to infrastructure, which are expected not to be material and also storm surge and inland flooding losses.

The risk modeller warned that the “COVID-19 pandemic, which will likely act to increase losses beyond typical expectations.”

They also warn of “the possibility of “claims leakage,” the payment for damage from other events under a single occurrence, given that several events occurred in close succession.”

“This includes Storm Franklin, which impacted Europe to a smaller degree between February 20-22, 2022 but its damage may be reimbursed under Dudley or Eunice claims,” RMS cautioned.

Michèle Lai, senior product manager for Europe Climate Models at RMS, commented, “Windstorm Eunice will likely be the costliest European windstorm of the last 15 years, following the path of Kyrill (2007), however, it will end up causing less damage in Germany than its ‘big brother.’ Although the last two decades have mostly spared us from history-making windstorms like Daria (1990) or Lothar (1999), Windstorms Dudley and Eunice remind us how destructive these events can be and highlight the importance of storm clustering, the close succession of multiple storms following similar trajectories, in Europe.”

Also read:

Verisk (AIR) estimates Dudley/Eunice insured losses at EUR 3bn to 5bn.

Euro storm losses may hit EUR 5bn. Reinsurance to take majority: Fitch.

European windstorm insured losses head towards EUR 3bn.

No cat bond losses from Euro storms, but aggregate implications: Plenum.

Billion plus storm losses expected from Dudley (Ylenia) & Eunice (Zeynep).

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