PERILS reduces storm Nils insured market loss estimate to €695m

Catastrophe data aggregator PERILS has published its third industry loss estimate for extratropical windstorm Nils, also known as “Ulrike”, that struck the Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie regions in southwest France in mid-February, placing the insurance market loss at €695 million, a notable decline from its second estimate that was published in May.

PERILS published its initial insurance industry loss estimate for this windstorm back in March, putting the total at €586 million.

The company then published its second industry loss estimate in May, three months after the event end date, lifting the total by nearly 31% to €767 million.

Now in its third insurance industry loss estimate for this event, PERILS has slightly decreased the total by roughly 9% to €695 million.

PERILS’ loss estimate is based on data gathered from impacted insurers, including losses from property and motor lines of business.

For context, Windstorm Nils was a very intense extratropical cyclone which impacted Southwest France from February 11th to 13th, 2026. The cyclone caused two fatalities, significant disruption, and damage to properties.

Passing over the Atlantic coast on the evening of February 11th, the windstorm moved across southwestern France before crossing over the Mediterranean to reach Corsica.

PERILS explained that windstorm Nils brought a combination of destructive winds, intense rainfall and river flooding, while also generating high avalanche risk in the Alps.

According to the catastrophe data aggregator, the extreme winds were the main driver of insured losses.

These winds caused power supply disruptions for around 900,000 households and also damaged thousands of homes, roofs, and lightweight structures.

PERILS confirmed that it will provide an updated loss estimate for Nils on February 13th, 2027, twelve months after the event end date.

Luzi Hitz, Product Manager at PERILS, commented: “The European windstorm season 2025/26 witnessed two events which fall under our PERILS CORE coverage: Goretti in January 2026, which we currently estimate at EUR 479 million, and Nils in February, currently estimated at EUR 695 million.

“In addition, there was Windstorm Kristin in Portugal and Spain in late January 2026, which falls under our PERILS EXTENDED coverage and which we currently estimate at EUR 1,727 million.”

Hitz continued: “European windstorm losses are typically dominated by events affecting the British Isles and Western Europe. The 2025/26 season is therefore a rare exception in that the majority of losses occurred in the Iberic Peninsula.”