Property reinsurance prices most likely to fall 7.5% to 15% in 2027: Moody’s survey

After double-digit price declines this year, respondents to a survey have indicated they expect property reinsurance rates will most likely tumble a further 7.5% to 15% in 2027, Moody’s Ratings data shows.

In its annual survey of reinsurance buyers, which always gets published just before the Monte Carlo Rendez-vous event, Moody’s Ratings highlights the broad acceptance that further softening of property reinsurance pricing is ahead.

A year ago, Moody’s Ratings’ survey respondents underestimated the amount that property and catastrophe reinsurance rates would soften in 2026.

Some 74% of respondents forecast property reinsurance softening in 2026, but in the latest buyers survey 86% of respondents said they expect rates to decline again in 2027.

The survey responses suggest that if nothing changes between now and the January 2027 reinsurance renewals, we could see softening of a similar level to at the start of this year.

This year more survey respondents are anticipating deeper softening of property reinsurance rates for 2027 than they forecast for this year, perhaps in response to having underestimated the depth of price moves.

In addition, the graphic above shows a meaningful number of respondents anticipate softening of greater than 15%, although interestingly this is portfolio wide rather than US and Caribbean where the proportion expecting deeper softening is lower.

Moody’s Ratings commented, “While prices came down significantly in the 2026 contract renewals, reinsurers can still generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for property reinsurance and this will drive competition for 2027. Pricing expectations would likely shift if there were a major catastrophe before the next January renewals.”

Also read:

– 28% of reinsurance buyers expect to increase alternative capital use in 2027: Moody’s.

– Traditional reinsurance capacity the key driver of price competition: Moody’s survey.