CatIQ lifts Ontario & Quebec thunderstorm insured market loss estimate 12% to C$491m

CatIQ, Canada’s insured loss and exposure index provider, has raised its insurance industry loss estimate for the severe thunderstorm event that impacted parts of southern Ontario and southern Quebec between June 30th and July 3rd, 2026, to CAD $491 million, a 12% increase from the firm’s second loss estimate of $439 million.

CatIQ published its initial loss estimate from the event back in early August, putting the total at the time at $374 million.

A second estimate was then released by CatIQ in mid-August, where losses had risen by 17.5% to €439 million, with growth mainly occurring in commercial lines.

With claims having continued to be filed, the total has risen steadily now, increasing by roughly 12% to $491 million for the third industry loss estimate, with growth primarily occurring in residential lines of business.

CatIQ’s loss number covers property (both commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims including additional loss adjustment expenses.

CatIQ also confirmed that it will publish an updated loss estimate for the severe thunderstorm event on January 5th, 2027.

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, commented, “The city of Ottawa saw its wettest summer on record in 2026, and this event was a primary contributor. Of the nearly 550 mm of rain that fell on the city between June and August, nearly 120 mm fell on 1 July.

“The impact of this intense pluvial flooding is clearly reflected in the high-resolution loss data, which shows more than 45% of the incurred loss in personal lines stemmed from just two FSAs in the Nepean area.”

Floyd continued: “All told, more than 70% of the incurred total and more than 60% of claims for personal property arose from Nepean and communities on the southwest side of Ottawa.”

Additionally, CatIQ has also published its second insurance industry loss estimate for the Bald Range Fire that impacted Summerland, British Columbia, and the surrounding area in August 2026. CatIQ’s second loss estimate for the event is $293 million, which marks a slight decrease compared to its initial estimate of $313 million.