KCC updates and enhances US Severe Convective Storm model

Catastrophe risk modelling specialist Karen Clark & Company (KCC), has launched a new version of its US Severe Convective Storm (SCS) model, incorporating a range of advancements that further strengthens the firm’s approach to quantifying losses from one of the weather perils driving a significant share of insured property losses across the country.

“The world is getting more complex, the climate is changing, and we’re learning faster than ever with AI. If models—particularly for the frequency perils—are even a few years old, they’re already out of date. KCC scientists update the SCS model on an annual basis to ensure (re)insurers stay current with all trends and quickly advancing knowledge,” KCC explained.

KCC noted that Version 5.0 of its US SCS model includes refined techniques for severe tornado outbreaks, as well as improved tornado and wind intensity calculations along the Southeast coast.

Moreover, the model incorporates AI-informed 4D atmospheric modeling, rather than solely relying on historical storm reports, to accurately represent the physical processes that drive hail, tornado, and straight-line wind losses.

KCC also noted that Version 5.0 includes fine-tuned vulnerability functions of manufactured homes, and updated hail vulnerability functions for site-built homes based on structure age. KCC also said that the updated model introduces refined roof age credits and debits.

Additionally, KCC’s US SCS model now allows users to enter custom roof replacement values, enabling faster customisation of Roof Actual Cash Value endorsements, which can significantly reduce hail loss estimates by valuing roof damage on a depreciated basis rather than full replacement cost.

KCC’s US SCS model provides daily high-resolution hail and tornado/wind footprints that insurers, reinsurers, and ILS investors use to estimate claims and losses by day, event, month, and year.

Karen Clark, KCC CEO, commented: “The KCC SCS model has become the gold standard for the industry—providing the accuracy and stability that reinsurers and ILS investors require to confidently price and deploy capacity for this peril.

“Version 5.0 reflects ongoing investments in atmospheric science, engineering, AI, and actual claims-based verification to continually refine the representation of severe convective storm risk.”