The insurance and reinsurance market loss from hurricane Ida is estimated to be close to US $18 billion, according to modelled analysis from catastrophe risk specialist Karen Clark & Company.
As ever, Karen Clark & Company is the first out of the gates with an official modelled industry loss estimate for hurricane Ida and its right around the mid-point of most estimates so far.
Generally, estimates of insurance and reinsurance market losses have ranged from $15 billion to $25 billion, with the upper-bounds only seen as possible if there is loss amplification and creep to deal with further down the line.
But modelled and stochastic analyses based on hurricane Ida’s track and insured exposures in the regions affected all seem to point to something between $15 billion and around $22 billion, so KCC’s estimate falls nicely into that range.
It’s important to highlight how early it is to have a complete view of the insurance and reinsurance market’s impacts from a major catastrophe event like this, so it’s anticipated there will be change over time.
$40 million of KCC’s estimate is from damage in the Caribbean, while the rest is from US wind and storm surge impacts.
It includes privately insured damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties and automobiles, but does not include boats, offshore properties, or NFIP losses.
We assume this covers commercial flood insurance losses, a majority of which are now private market covers, but we’re not sure if it includes business interruption claims.
The estimate from KCC is based on the outputs of its high-resolution KCC Caribbean and US Hurricane Reference Models.