The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research initiative is the first to issue a very early long-range forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. After a benign 2009 you might think that we’d be in for more of the same next year, however the forecast from TSR is for an above average season with a higher than normal number of storms of high intensity.
The forecast report (available here in PDF format) predicts 13.9 named tropical storms with 7.4 attaining hurricane status. Of those hurricanes they predict 3.4 to be intense, meaning hurricane category 3 to 5. That’s the overall forecast. The report also has forecast numbers for U.S. landfalling hurricanes during 2010. They predict 4.4 tropical storms to make landfall and 1.9 hurricanes.
All these numbers are above the 60 year climate averages for these statistics. However, this forecast is not unusual and even the season just gone had initially high estimates for storm numbers. So no need to panic just yet and there’s still plenty of time to secure cover and risk transfer to ensure the season doesn’t impact you.