Atlantic Hurricane Season

The coming week is set to feature the first hurricane threat to Florida of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as tropical storm Idalia is forecast to steadily intensify, move into the Gulf of Mexico and approach the Gulf coast of Florida as hurricane Idalia by Wednesday.

Hurricane Hilary, an east Pacific storm churning off the coast of Mexico with 140 mph sustained winds as a Category 4 major hurricane, is set to approach southern California with tropical characteristics potentially still intact this weekend, signalling a very rare event for the State and region.

Meteorologists eyes have all turned towards the Atlantic tropics in recent days, as forecast models have increasingly pointed towards an improving chance of depressions and storms forming, but the Atlantic high and dry Saharan air continues to make the formation of any storms or hurricanes very uncertain.

The US weather service NOAA has effectively doubled its forecast outlook for activity in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting a 60% chance of an above normal season, double its 30% prediction from back in May.

Forecast group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season for a second time, now citing an expectation of activity levels 10% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.

The UK Met Office has pared back its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast slightly in a new update, but while now predicting fewer storms overall, the group has added one to its forecast for major hurricanes, while the Weather Company has raised its seasonal forecast considerably

Saying that warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic will counteract the increased vertical wind shear and stronger trade winds that occur under El Niño conditions, forecast group Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has now raised its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology team led by Phil Klotzbach is anticipating a more active 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with its latest update increasing the number of hurricanes it predicts by 2, with 1 of those expected to become a major hurricane.

Tropical storm Bret formed in the Atlantic yesterday, becoming perhaps the earliest storm to form so far east, which experts are saying has been fuelled by the exceptional sea surface temperatures seen in the basin.

The impact of climate change has the potential to increase hurricane losses in the U.S. by at least 10% over two decades in certain scenarios, according to insurance and reinsurance broker Aon’s work with Columbia University.