Atlantic Hurricane Season

Early estimates for the insurance and reinsurance industry loss caused by the impacts of hurricane Idalia in Florida and southeastern US states appear to be in a range for roughly $3 billion to $9 billion, with most erring towards the lower-half.

The catastrophe bond market looks set to escape any significant impacts from hurricane Idalia, despite the fact a major storm landfall in the state of Florida is typically seen as one of the main events the cat bond market could be exposed to.

The eventual industry losses from hurricane Idalia are not expected to be that significant, with analysts at KBW saying they could be well below $10 billion, but also explaining that this should help to sustain demand for reinsurance.

Major hurricane Idalia has made landfall on the Florida Big Bend with winds around 125 mph near Keaton Beach at 7.45am EDT and now major hurricane impacts will spread through the landfall region of Florida, while hurricane and tropical storm impacts can be expected more widely and into Georgia and the Carolinas as well.

Hurricane Idalia has intensified further in recent hours and has become a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds. But further strengthening is now expected right up to landfall, where major hurricane Idalia is forecast to have Category 4 winds of around 130 mph when it reaches the Florida Big Bend area of […]

The latest NHC update on hurricane Idalia shows a further slight increase in the peak wind speeds expected from the storm as it approaches a major category landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast, while the peak storm surge forecast height has also risen.

Hurricane Idalia is not expected to significantly impact catastrophe bonds, with a shift in its forecast track north and further away from Tampa having lowered the modelled expected loss outcome for the storm, according to specialist asset manager Plenum Investments.

Idalia has now become a hurricane, running a little behind the forecast schedule as it meandered around Cuba, but now moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC warns hurricane Idalia will be an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” for Florida.

As tropical storm Idalia continues to develop, the latest from the NHC forecasts a Category 3 major hurricane Idalia will approach the Florida coastline, leading BMS Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert to highlight the potential for any storm of this kind to be a multi-billion dollar insurance and reinsurance market loss event.

While still a tropical storm for now, Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today, after which there is little to stand in the way of hurricane Idalia intensifying rapidly to near or above major Category 3 strength, before its winds and surge impact the Florida Gulf Coast.