According to industry sources, catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide’s preliminary estimate of insurance and reinsurance market losses from hurricane Laura was pegged in a range from $4.8 billion to as high as $9.2 billion.
We understand this is not an official industry loss estimate from AIR, that should be expected in the coming days we believe.
Rather this is the kind of preliminary modelled industry loss estimate provided to insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) market clients by catastrophe risk modelling firms, while a storm is still in the water, or after it has just struck land.
Estimates range widely in the industry it seems.
Our sources had been largely discussing a range from $8 billion to as high as $14 billion.
While CoreLogic came out with a wind and surge insured loss estimate of $8 billion to $12 billion earlier today.
With those figures in mind, AIR’s estimate perhaps seems a little low.
But this was likely made using data on historical or simulated hurricane events, wind and surge, rather than being based on a full evaluation of the landfall and onshore impacts of major hurricane Laura.
As a result, it would not surprise us to see AIR’s official estimate having a top-end into the double-digit billions when it is released next week, although perhaps not as far into the double-digits as some might have anticipated for a Cat 4 landfall.
Update: AIR’s first official loss estimate is now available, with the company saying onshore property insured losses would be between $4 billion and $8 billion.
– Hurricane Laura wind & surge insured loss $8bn to $12bn: CoreLogic.
– Hurricane Laura assessment to take time, double-digit billion loss possible.
– Hurricane Laura industry losses seen as “manageable” by analysts.
– Hurricane Laura exposed insurers could tap reinsurance (ALL, TRV, PGR, HIG).
– Cat bond trading seen as light as hurricane Laura approached.
– Hurricane Laura makes landfall in Louisiana with 150mph Cat 4 winds.
– Hurricane Laura analogues cited at up to $6bn insured loss by RMS.
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