AbsoluteClimo’s climate risk models forecast fewer economic losses in 2020

AbsoluteClimo, a climate and weather modeling, forecasting and risk management firm based in Hawaii, says its models suggest that in 2020 global total economic losses from climate-driven natural catastrophes are most likely to meet or exceed $110 billion.

That’s significantly lower than the number seen this year and also lower than the company’s own forecasts for 2017, 2018 and 2019.

A year ago, AbsoluteClimo came out with a forecast from its ClimoCats model, which suggested near normal expected global total climate-driven catastrophe losses of $153 billion, with a probability range of $90 billion (best) to $257 billion (worst).

In the end that appears to have been very close to the money, as reinsurance firm Munich Re preliminarily estimated 2019 economic catastrophe losses at $150 billion.

Losses to the insurance and reinsurance sector specifically were $52 billion, which was aligned with long term averages.

For 2020, AbsoluteClimo’s models forecast global total losses as being most likely to meet or exceed $110 billion (ensemble mean), with a probability range from $80 billion to $164 billion.

That’s a much narrower range than a year ago, so it will be interesting to see how the forecast compares another year down the line.

The company has also made some enhancements to its climate related catastrophe models, resulting in an extended prediction horizon of up to 5 years, with predictive forward risk assessment of financial losses.

The company has also expanded to add financial losses and casualties from major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions worldwide to its models as well.

“Including earthquakes and volcanoes sets AbsoluteClimo even further apart from all other predictive global climate models which are missing this logical geospheric component of the climate system. This breakthrough was made possible by ongoing self reinvestment into our R&D and our decades of forecasting practitioner experience,” the company explained.