Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Sciences has released its latest forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. These forecasts tend to be some of the more accurate, Professor William Gray is highly respected in this area.
The latest forecast predicts a well above-average season with an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall. The forecast has been increased since the last issue in December.
The latest forecast predicts 15 named storms, 8 of which will turn into hurricanes with 4 of those being classed as intense. They place the probability of U.S. landfall of a major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane at 69% (the average for the last century is 52%). They also say there is above-average risk of major hurricanes hitting Caribbean islands this year. An interesting figure they give is the Net Tropical Cyclone Activity which they place at 160% of the norm, a fairly scary figure!
With hurricane season beginning on May 1st we may see a few more catastrophe bond issues in the coming month as indemnity against major hurricanes is shored up.
The full forecast is available here, including details of the forecast methodology.
When the season begins Artemis will be launching a page which will provide links to track and receive alerts on hurricanes as they happen in the Atlantic basin. We’ll announce that page when it is launched.