Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index

Latest reinsurance renewal commentary from Guy Carpenter

January 1 2026 renewals update:

The Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index fell by 12% at the January 1 2026 reinsurance renewals, as broad market softening resulted in lower priced protection for ceding companies.

Guy Carpenter said that the renewals at January 1 2026 saw a continued increase in reinsurance capacity levels resulting in more pressure on rates, which resulted in a decline for Global property catastrophe rates, and for regions such as the United States.

There remained differentiation at the January 1st 2026 renewals, with some loss-impacted property catastrophe programs seeing price increases, which included for loss-affected regions of the US.

A year ago, the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index fell by 6.2% at January 1st 2025 and the Index decline rose to 6.7% after the mid-year renewals, which took it back from an all-time-high, although it was still sitting above any level achieved prior to 2023.

The further now 12% decline in US property catastrophe reinsurance rates at the 1/1 2026 renewals has eroded some more of the hard market gains that reinsurers had made.

However, since 2017, the cumulative increase of this Index remains at around 70%, even after the now two consecutive years of January renewal softening.

Historically, the US property catastrophe rate on line Index remains at a high level. But it will be interesting to see how the mid-year 2026 reinsurance renewals affect the Index value.

The most recent low for this U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index was in 2017, at the end of the soft market, since when rates have risen consistently each year up to January 2025.

* Numbers based on latest renewal data.

• View the Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.
• View the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.

The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base.  The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions.  Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.