Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index

Latest commentary from Guy Carpenter

January 1 Reinsurance Renewals Commentary

This Index has risen by 5.4% at January 1st 2024, reflecting further increases achieved on global property catastrophe reinsurance contracts by reinsurers at the renewals.

The pace of change slowed considerably for 2024, dropping from the 27.2% gain at 1/1 2023 and the 29.3% for full-year 2023.

But the fact rates have risen further for property catastrophe risks around the globe, suggests another profitable year, if loss activity allows.

Guy Carpenter noted that outcomes were affected by regional loss activity, structure adjustments and ongoing scrutiny of pricing adequacy.

The broker also said that regional calculations include the US index increasing by 5.25%, but that property catastrophe rates in Europe rose slightly faster at 7.6% at January 1st 2024.

At 1/1, Guy Carpenter had noted that some property cat renewals were up by as much as 30%, but that overall the market was more stable and the availability of retrocession capital helped in this respect.

Guy Carpenter’s Chairman David Priebe said the reinsurance market saw a dynamic emerging around the key January 1 reinsurance renewals where pricing has remained firm, while capital has proven to be plentiful.

Notably, this Index of global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing is now up by 76% since its last low in 2017 and has risen every year since then.

* Preliminary numbers.

• View the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.
• View the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.

The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base.  The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions.  Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.