Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index

Latest commentary from Guy Carpenter

January 1 Reinsurance Renewals Commentary

This Index fell by 6.6% at January 1st 2025, reflecting rate-on-line decreases seen across global property catastrophe reinsurance contracts underwritten by reinsurers at the renewals.

In the prior year, the pace of change slowed considerably in 2024, dropping from the 27.2% gain seen at 1/1 2023 and then 29.3% for full-year 2023, to a gain of only 5.4% at January 1st 2024 and then by the end of the full-year just a gain of 2.3% for 2024.

While rates have now fallen for property catastrophe risks around the globe as the reinsurance market shifts appears to shift to a capacity-heavy softening phase, still rates-on-line remain at historically high levels which implies another profitable year for reinsurers is possible, dependent on loss activity.

Guy Carpenter noted that strong appetites from traditional reinsurance and alternative capital providers resulted in excess capacity, that served to drive loss-free property catastrophe rates down between 5% and 15% at the January 1st 2025 renewals.

The reinsurance broker also said that loss-impacted property catastrophe renewals saw some layers with price increases of as much as 30%, so it was far from a down market across the board it seems.

Dean Klisura, President & CEO of Guy Carpenter said, “Renewal outcomes at year-end reflect reinsurers’ positive property experience over the last two years and casualty portfolios that are well-positioned for future profitability.”

Notably, this Index of global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing remains up by 60% since its last low in 2017, having risen each year since until the January 2025 renewal season.

Post-mid-year 2025 renewals update:

After including market data from the mid-year 2025 renewals, this Global index is now down 8.1% for 2025 to-date.

Despite these declines, this Global index of property catastrophe reinsurance rates and pricing is still higher than all years running from 2006 to 2023.

Notably, this Index of global property catastrophe reinsurance pricing is still 57% higher than its last low in 2017, reflecting still strong and attractive pricing in reinsurance.

* Preliminary numbers.

• View the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.
• View the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index.

The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base.  The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions.  Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.