U.S. SCS insured losses projected to be below average in 2026: KCC

Severe convective storm (SCS) insured losses in the United States are projected to be below average in 2026 based on recorded losses seen in the first half of the year, according to catastrophe risk modeler Karen Clark & Company (KCC).

In recent years, severe convective storms, which includes tornadoes, damaging winds, and hailstorms have continued to grow in intensity and expand geographically across the U.S.

Nevertheless, despite the occurrence of multiple multi-billion-dollar events this year, KCC notes in a recent commentary that the losses during the typically active spring months, particularly in May, were relatively low this year due to a sustained high-pressure system over the Southeast.

The catastrophe risk modeler specifically pointed out that in spring, the jet stream, a crucial driver of SCS activity, is frequently positioned further south. Consequently, this set up generally leads to storm formation in the Southeast and Texas, regions where higher losses usually occur.

“In May 2026, the southerly storm tracks were blocked by a persistent high-pressure system that was positioned over the Southeast for much of the month. High pressure often means warm, dry weather, and sinking air, which prevents convective storms from developing. The persistent high pressure in May led to exceptionally dry weather in the Southeast, prolonging the drought conditions in this region,” KCC explained.

“This weather pattern led to above-average wildfire activity, but almost no severe storms for the entire month. SCS impacts were mainly limited to the Central Plains,” the firm added.

Accumulated losses by the end of June typically account for over 75% total annual SCS losses. However, KCC’s recent commentary highlights why 2026 is trending below recent years.

Recent broker reports on H1 2026 catastrophe losses still reinforce SCS as this year’s primary loss driver for the global insurance and reinsurance market, even in a quieter period for the peril.

Gallagher Re estimated that around $26 billion of its $46 billion global insured catastrophe total stemmed from SCS events, with the broker calling it North America’s costliest peril.

Similarly, Aon pegged insured losses from U.S. severe convective storms at approximately $27 billion for H1 2026, with the firm noting that a U.S. outbreak from April 23rd to 29th was the period’s single largest event, generating over $5 billion in insured losses.

While SCS continues to remain a dominant peril generating tens of billions in insured losses, 2026 total losses are currently on track to land below recent annual averages.