typhoon Jebi 2018

Opinions differ dramatically when it comes to estimating industry insured losses from typhoon Hagibis it seems, with global reinsurance giant Swiss Re opting for just $8 billion.

The market is increasingly confident that industry losses from recent Japanese typhoon Hagibis and also 2018’s typhoon Jebi will ultimately stabilise below the top-end of estimates, good news for those that reserved conservatively and for those for who Jebi loss creep has been a significant issue.

Typhoon Jebi’s impacts on the global insurance and reinsurance market is already above the 1-in-40-year loss level, according to estimates from S&P Global Ratings, who also warn that further material developments cannot be ruled out.

The rising insurance and reinsurance industry loss from 2018’s typhoon Jebi in Japan has caused what some are privately terming chaos in the industry-loss warranty (ILW) market, as two widely used but unofficial trigger data sources still show estimates at below $10 billion.

If the loss creep linked to Japanese typhoon Jebi continues it has the potential to impact RenaissanceRe’s retrocessional reinsurance underwriting book, according to the firms CEO.

French reinsurance firm SCOR is now covered for further loss creep from Japanese typhoon Jebi, with the loss now having triggered its retrocessional protection.

The impacts to reinsurance and ILS players from the typhoon Jebi losses in Japan may still have a little further to run, as the escalation of the industry loss has hit fresh layers in reinsurance programs, we’ve learned.

Reported claims figures for the typhoons and extreme rainfall event that struck Japan last year have risen significantly, with the latest figures from the General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) totalling over US $14.5 billion.

The insurance and reinsurance industry wide loss from Japanese typhoon Jebi looks destined to rise even further, with analysts saying that industry participants they met with recently in Bermuda have suggested the loss may settle at between $15 billion to as much as $16 billion.

Global reinsurance firm Swiss Re strengthened its typhoon Jebi loss reserves in the last quarter and the firms CFO John Dacey said that the company puts the industry loss from the storm at close to $13 billion now.