tropical storm Ida 2021

A hurricane Ida industry loss estimate update from RMS has put the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) reinsurance counterparties and catastrophe bond investors on-watch for potential losses, as the estimate suggests the traditional reinsurance component at-least is likely to attach and face losses.

Catastrophe risk modelling firm RMS has now added a further $6 billion to $9 billion of insurance and reinsurance market losses to its industry estimate for recent hurricane Ida, adding the expected flood toll further north and taking the total estimate range to $31 billion to $44 billion.

US primary insurance carrier Allstate expects a $1.4 billion gross loss from recent hurricane Ida, but said that this will be reduced significantly to an estimated $631 million, pre-tax, thanks to what appear significant reinsurance recoveries from its excess-of-loss program.

Analysts at investment bank Jefferies said this morning that they estimate the insurance and reinsurance industry loss from recent hurricane Ida will be around $32.2 billion, taking the 2021 catastrophe loss year-to-date run-rate far above the average.

Catastrophe risk modeller AIR Worldwide now says that hurricane Ida will cost the insurance and reinsurance market between $20 billion and $30 billion, an estimate that now includes private market inland flood insured losses.

Hurricane Ida is expected to become one of the costliest tropical storm impacts ever to affect the mainland United States, according to insurance and reinsurance broker Aon.

Data and analytics company CoreLogic has provided an insurance market loss estimate for the flooding caused by hurricane Ida’s remnants in the northeastern states of the US, saying it will range from $5 billion to as much as $8 billion.

Catastrophe risk modeller RMS has provided the clearest view of the escalation in industry loss estimates for recent hurricane Ida, pegging the total onshore and offshore losses for the Gulf region at between $25 billion and $35 billion.

There’s likely to be some uncertainty  in the secondary market pricing of the outstanding FloodSmart Re catastrophe bonds that provide reinsurance from the capital markets to FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), after the remnants of hurricane Ida flooded north eastern US states, ILS investment manager Plenum has said.

Estimates for insurance and reinsurance market losses from recent hurricane Ida are rising with the inclusion of damages from the storms remnants that occurred further north, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.