hurricane Idalia 2023

The latest NHC update on hurricane Idalia shows a further slight increase in the peak wind speeds expected from the storm as it approaches a major category landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast, while the peak storm surge forecast height has also risen.

Hurricane Idalia is not expected to significantly impact catastrophe bonds, with a shift in its forecast track north and further away from Tampa having lowered the modelled expected loss outcome for the storm, according to specialist asset manager Plenum Investments.

Idalia has now become a hurricane, running a little behind the forecast schedule as it meandered around Cuba, but now moving into the far southern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC warns hurricane Idalia will be an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” for Florida.

As tropical storm Idalia continues to develop, the latest from the NHC forecasts a Category 3 major hurricane Idalia will approach the Florida coastline, leading BMS Senior Meteorologist Andrew Siffert to highlight the potential for any storm of this kind to be a multi-billion dollar insurance and reinsurance market loss event.

While still a tropical storm for now, Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today, after which there is little to stand in the way of hurricane Idalia intensifying rapidly to near or above major Category 3 strength, before its winds and surge impact the Florida Gulf Coast.

The coming week is set to feature the first hurricane threat to Florida of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, as tropical storm Idalia is forecast to steadily intensify, move into the Gulf of Mexico and approach the Gulf coast of Florida as hurricane Idalia by Wednesday.