PERILS upgrades windstorm loss forecast tool, expands it to Australia


Catastrophe data aggregator PERILS AG has upgraded its European windstorm industry loss forecasting software tool and expanded it to cover Australian tropical cyclones as well.

PERILS launched the tool named Wind-Jeannie in 2015, to provide forecasts of potential insurance or reinsurance industry losses from European windstorms as they approached the continent.

The European tool has been upgraded with the latest loss information from recent European windstorm events, with an updated underlying loss model including Friederike and Burglind which both occurred in January 2018, and other storms since the tool was last updated in 2016.

The European tool has also had the modelled sums insured updated, using PERILS latest Industry Exposure Database 2018.

In addition the tool now covers Australian windstorms, or tropical cyclones, in the same way as it does for Europe.

It offers forecasts of potential insurance and reinsurance property market loss from windstorm events for the 72 hours period before they make landfall, with forecasts updated in real-time every 12 hours.

The industry loss forecasts are broken down by Australian State and postcode and detailed footprints of the forecasted wind gusts and resulting losses are available to users. You can also get email alerts for major approaching storms and view animated gust forecasts for an upcoming seven-day period.

Darryl Pidcock, Head of PERILS Asia-Pacific, commented, “Wind-Jeannie Australia provides a new perspective on windstorm risk for the region as we move into the upcoming tropical cyclone season. It offers multiple benefits to users such as supporting insurers’ preparation of claims and loss-adjusting resources, timely internal communication to senior management on possible losses and the potential for it to be used as a tool to facilitate trading of Cat risk. Moving forward, we will look to enhance Wind-Jeannie by collecting loss information from actual events and comparing these to the forecast losses provided by the platform.”

Luzi Hitz, CEO of PERILS, also said, “Wind-Jeannie is designed in a similar way to a weather forecast website. It takes less than 15 seconds to generate a loss forecast and if conducted regularly helps the user to establish a good picture of the potential impact of an approaching windstorm event. Users can also set up email alerts for windstorm events with forecasted industry losses in excess of AUD 100m for Australia and EUR 100m for Europe. In our view, Wind-Jeannie is testimony to the usefulness of PERILS market data and the innovation it can trigger.”

Nick Hartry, Executive Manager, Reinsurance Operations at IAG, added: “The launch of Wind-Jeannie Australia will support our ability to understand the potential impact of an approaching windstorm event and help us prepare our teams to respond quickly in the aftermath of a major event to assist those affected. Wind-Jeannie Australia, together with the PERILS Industry Exposure & Event Loss Database, will also continue to help develop alternative capital structures and encourage and support new investors to the region.”

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