Munich Re pegs global insured catastrophe losses at $44bn for H1 2026

Reinsurance firm Munich Re has estimated that global insured losses from natural catastrophe events reached US $44 billion in the first-half of 2026, below long-term averages, and a notable decline from last year’s $80 billion. 

Munich Re’s data on global insured natural catastrophe losses of $44 billion for H1 2026 compares to broker Aon’s estimate of at least $47 billion, and reinsurance broker Gallagher Re’s estimate of $46 billion.

Total economic losses are estimated to have reached nearly $112 billion in H1 2026, which compared to the period’s $44 billion in insured losses, represents an insurance gap of 60%.

Munich Re observed that the economic losses for the first half of the year were marginally lower than the inflation-adjusted average figures from the past decade (total losses: $113 billion; insured losses: $50 billion), yet considerably below the 5-year average figures (total losses: $136 billion; insured losses: $66 billion).

The United States dominated global insured catastrophe losses again, causing total economic losses of around $47 billion by June, $34 billion of which were insured.

As per Munich Re, the costliest natural disaster in North America in the first half of 2026 was a large severe thunderstorm outbreak in April triggered by a strong frontal system over the central United States.

“The April event swept across several states in the Midwestern US, reaching as far south as Texas. Around 100 tornadoes were recorded, including a destructive EF4 tornado – the second-highest category – with wind speeds of up to 290 km/h (180 mph). The losses amounted to US$ 5.8bn, around US$ 4.1bn of which were insured,” the reinsurer explained.

For insurers, severe thunderstorms in the US were the biggest driver of losses in the first half of the year, which coincides with similar commentary from broker’s Gallagher Re and Aon.

However, Munich Re noted that with total losses of around $30 billion, which resulted in insured losses of around $22 billion, the damage caused by the thunderstorms in the United States during H1’26 was below the average figures for the past ten years, of total losses of $34 billion and insured losses of $26 billion.

The reinsurer also noted that the double earthquake in Venezuela on June 24th was the most destructive natural disaster recorded during the period.

According to preliminary estimates, total losses from the quake are expected to be in the region of $30 billion, which includes insured losses of less than $1 billion.

“The first half of the year has provided a welcome breather from previous years of high natural disaster losses. But climate change and growing exposure persist, increasing the risk of larger losses in the future. The best way for society to reduce losses is to stop building in high-risk areas and to keep investing in prevention,” commented Thomas Blunck, Member of the Board of Management.

Compared to North America, Europe saw a lighter first-half, with overall losses of around $22 billion, of which just over $7 billion of which was insured, Munich Re reports.

For the Asia-Pacific and Africa region, economic losses came in at around $8.7 billion, of which just over $1 billion were insured.

Looking ahead, Munich Re observed that the second half of 2026 is also expected to be shaped by the climate phenomenon El Niño, which typically tends to produce even higher temperatures and influences extreme weather events in many regions across the globe.

Current forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions towards the end of the year. El Niño phases usually last between six months and a year, often peaking around the end of the calendar year.

“It’s a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further. The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters,” added Tobias Grimm, Munich Re’s Chief Climate Scientist.